JUNE 17, 2015
Donald Trump’s declaration of candidacy speech yesterday at Trump Tower has been widely mocked and dismissed by some who are attempting to dismiss the pompous quadrillionaire. Dismiss him at your peril, however. On the way to his eventual flaming demise as a candidate, he may so damage the party’s front-runners that the winner enters the general election crippled. To wit:
1. Trump’s Mexico-bashing will only further alienate the Latino voters that the GOP is trying to woo.
Trump’s xenophobia has been well-documented. But he’s never quite stuck out his neck this far.
“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems. And they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists, and some, I assume, are good people.“
Some, maybe, there’s a chance that there’s good people. Remember this is an candidacy speech, where you’re trying to get people to vote for you. And undoubtedly this overt Mexico-bashing will play well among a narrow slice of GOP primary voters. But it forces his rivals to either call him on his crap, thus instigating an ugly mano-a-mano cage match that will do no one any good, or to stay silent, which could be read as tacit condoning of his views. Either way, the GOP loses.
2. Trump’s presence means trouble for low-polling but serious candidates who are trying to get on the stage.
With Fox News’ ruling that only the Top 10 candidates as determined by an aggregate of 5 national polls can participate in the first debate, Trump’s name recognition alone will likely propel him to a spot on the stage. He will be there at the expense of a one of number of lower-polling candidates whose goal is something other than tabloid headlines.
- The GOP needs Carly Fiorina on that stage. As the only woman in the race, she is indispensable to the GOP as the only candidate who can bash Hillary without coming off as sexist.
- The GOP needs Rick Santorum on that stage. Santorum was the runner-up to Romney for the 2012 nomination and won 11 primaries in the process. If the GOP wants to keep these voters, ole Rick needs to be there.
- The GOP needs Rick Perry on that stage. Yes, his new glasses appear to be a lame attempt to look professorial, but it is evident that Perry has done his homework and is much better prepared than his 2012 debate debacles. The only way for the GOP to know how serious he is is to get him on that stage.
- The GOP needs Lindsey Graham on that stage. His hawkish POV represents the John McCain wing of the party, and that wing demands to be heard.
- The GOP does not need George Pataki on that stage.
3. Trump’s presence means trouble for the other candidates who have made it onto the stage.
You’re one of the 10 candidates who’ve made it on the stage. You’ve got your zingers and talking points all ready to go. You’re set. Then Trump starts to level the kind of personal attacks and accusations that he flung in his announcement speech. Do you ignore him, make your points and let the charges hang there? Or do you engage him and step down to his level? It’s a dilemma. If you don’t respond…..
4. Trump will hijack the debate.
Unfortunately, this is pretty much a given. Remember that there will be 10 people up there with precious little time for the candidates to make their points. All it would take would be another Trump lob “like “Mexican rapists,” and that would be the leading story the next day, swamping any nuanced point on issues that the other candidates may have to offer.
5. Trump’s entry only reinforces the “clown car” narrative.
The GOP appears to be very sensitive to the accusation that, as more and more extremist candidates enter the race, the Republican candidates are little more than a carful of clowns. Have any doubt? Here’s this morning’s front page of the New York Daily News:
Beep, beep.
