OCTOBER 16, 2015
In my first two Oscar columns, I highlighted 16 films that currently stand the best chance of making that potential 10-film cut for Best Picture. Happily, all 16 appear to be still in the thick of it, with one, “The Martian,” doing considerably better with critics and at the box office than expected.
Today we turn to the crowded Best Actor field, which includes an interesting mix of movie stars and newcomers. Let’s check out the most likely contenders:
Michael Caine (“Youth”)
Sometimes the Academy likes to give a beloved star a late-career nomination, and Caine, 82, would certainly qualify here. Already the winner of 2 Oscars (out of 6 nominations), Caine garnered excellent reviews as a composer who muses about his life with a friend while vacationing. The fact that “Youth” was directed by Paolo Sorrentino whose last film, “The Great Beauty” recently won the Best Foreign Film Oscar, can only raise this film’s profile with the Academy.
Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”)
Though much-honored TV star Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) appeared in Best Picture winner “Argo,” this is his first leading role to break through in films. Playing blacklisted screenwriter Dalton Trumbo, Cranston is said to be giving his all, with particularly juicy testimony before a Congressional committee which suspects him of being a communist. The Academy also loves movies about creative types (“The Artist,” “Argo” and “Birdman” all being recent Best Picture winners), so this one looks to be right up their alley.
Matt Damon (“The Martian”)
Before its release, “The Martian” had been pegged as merely a commercial movie, not an awards contender. But after its great reviews (93% favorable on Rotten Tomatoes) and box-office success, here it is near the top of the pack. Despite a stellar supporting cast, it’s really Damon’s show from beginning to end, as he displays a huge range of emotions from despair to sarcasm, occupying the screen alone for large chunks of the movie, and carrying the film across the finish line in a way few of his competitors have had the opportunity to do.
Johnny Depp (“Black Mass”)
The reviews and box-office for “Black Mass” have been just OK, but Depp has received strong notices across the board for his portrayal of South Boston mobster James (“Whitey”) Bulger. Depp, whose acting skills were highly regarded before his detour into schticky “mad hatter”-like family films, is being regarded as somewhat of a comeback kid. Add to that his chilling transitions from the gangster being warm-hearted with friends & family to being cold-blooded as he executes some of those same friends. The actors’ branch of the Academy will take notice.
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)
This is just based on a hunch, since no one has yet screened the Alejandro G. Iñárritu snowbound adventure of a trapper who is mauled by a bear and left for dead by his partners. However, from those who know the scope of his character from the novel and from what we see DiCaprio do in the film’s recently-released trailer, it feels like an Oscar contender. Besides that, DiCaprio has four previous acting nominations and is one of those actors about whom people ask “What? He never won an Oscar?” This may be his year. We’ll see.
Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”)
It’s early in the Best Actor race, but if anyone has pulled slightly ahead, it’s Fassbender. Even those who have been critical about “Steve Jobs” agree that Fassbender is mesmerizing in the title role, deftly handling Aaron Sorkin’s challenging dialogue and unafraid to look like an asshole when the character warrants it. With one nomination under his belt (“12 Years a Slave”) and one near-miss (“Shame”), Fassbender is highly regarded by his peers, and if “Steve Jobs” gets any kind of momentum in the awards race, it’s going to be tough to catch him.
Tom Hanks (“Bridge of Spies”)
Two-time Oscar winner Hanks is clearly an Academy favorite, and this well-reviewed Spielberg period spy drama is so in the Academy’s wheelhouse. However, one of Hanks’ career-best performances in “Captain Phillips” was shockingly absent from the Best Actor nominees two years ago, so there’s no sure thing. Nonetheless, the combination of Hanks/Spielberg/very good reviews/meaty role may be hard for the Academy to resist.
Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
Defending Best Actor champion Redmayne is back in a very Oscar-baity role as one of the first recipients of gender reassignment surgery in 1920’s Denmark. The subject matter couldn’t be more timely, but there may be some reluctance to award back-to-back Best Actor Oscars to someone so early in his career. Redmayne’s performance had been expected to figure prominently in this year’s festival circuit, and although Redmayne got strong reviews, those for his co-star Alicia Vikander were as good if not better. I’d still bet on a nomination at this point, though.
Géza Röhrig (“Son of Saul”)
Röhrig is the wild card in this year’s race. “Son of Saul” has been playing like gangbusters at festivals all year, and Röhrig’s performance has been at the center of the raves. As a prisoner at Auschwitz whose job his to bury the dead, he is said to be absolutely heartbreaking. The question is whether the material is too grim for the Academy and whether they can overcome their resistance to nominate foreign-language performances. Röhrig is going to need some critics’ awards along the way to get close, but the film’s distributor, Sony Pictures Classics, did it two years ago with Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour,” so they know how the game is played.
Will Smith (“Concussion”)
The other big unknown in the race. Smith plays Dr. Bennet Omalu, a real-life forensic pathologist who fought against the attempt by the NFL to suppress his findings on brain damage caused by head injuries to players in pro football games. “Concussion” has yet to be screened, so it may either be a dry medical procedural or an impassioned David & Goliath story, which would make it Oscar bait. Despite recent tabloid headlines about his marriage and his attempts to make his children movie stars, Smith is in the Academy club, with two previous acting nominations. And once you’re in, you’re always a threat.
These are my best hunches as of today, but this race is very fluid with at least 10 other contenders right behind. The race will undoubtedly change, and we’ll keep you posted every step of the way.
