OCTOBER 26, 2015
It’s January 20, 2017, and if it is Hillary Clinton standing on that podium about to take the Presidential oath of office, historians will likely look back at the 12-day period just ended as the turning point in the 2016 election. From Tuesday, October 12, the day of the first Democratic debate to the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Iowa on Saturday night, a series of four major events — some in Clinton’s control, some not — has helped to turn around a campaign that at times, appeared to be stalled.
Prior to the debate, Clinton’s campaign was facing a wide range of headaches:
- Rival Bernie Sanders had become the darling of the press and had even taken over the lead in the crucial state of New Hampshire.
- The specter of Joe Biden hovered over the race and drained a lot of her potential voters to the point where, when Biden was included in national polls, her lead over Sanders became terrifyingly narrow.
- Though she at last admitted that her using a private e-mail server was a “mistake,” she was unable to put that controversy behind her, as Republicans scored points by questioning her honesty and trustworthiness.
Then October 12 happened, the first of her four big moments, two of which we have previously discussed:
THE FIRST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE — October 12
Her assured demeanor and factual knowledge reminded many skittish supporters about what they liked about Hillary Clinton in the first place. And the helping hand given to her by Bernie Sanders about her “damn e-mails” helped to neutralize that troublesome issue for her, though it prompted criticism by some of his supporters that his magnanimous gesture took a potent issue against her off the table. More on that later.
JOE BIDEN DECLINES TO RUN — October 21
Ever since August, when New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd claimed that it was Beau Biden’s deathbed wish that his father run for President, the potential candidacy of Joe Biden has bedeviled the Clinton campaign. Though still unannounced, Biden began to be included in polls and clearly showed he was damaging Clinton. Whether her debate performance had anything to do with it, Biden bowed out, and the Clinton campaign breathed a huge sigh of relief.
Now the new stuff:
THE BENGHAZI HEARING — October 22
Clinton’s 11-hour grilling at the hands of inept Republican committee chairman Trey Gowdy and his hapless band of GOP Congressional underlings is becoming legendary as we speak. Her calm, cool and collected responses to some of the wildest and most incendiary charges imaginable made for riveting television. Angry white men beating up on Hillary Clinton is never a bad thing for her. However, what was most effective was her adept handling of the GOP women on the panel, especially Rep. Martha Roby (R-AL) who, while questioning Clinton as to whether she was alone at home the night of the Benghazi attacks, added “Were you alone all night?” That provoked a hearty laugh by Clinton, as well as most of the gallery, but Roby responded in her most schoolmarmish tone, “I don’t know why that’s funny….I don’t think it’s funny at all!” Watching it again still cracks me up.
But the most telling revelation that the whole day went up in smoke for the Republicans was the admission by Gowdy that, after 11 hours, Clinton’s testimony was unchanged from any other time she testified, and if there was anything new they had learned that day, he’d have to check the transcript. Game. Set. Match.
THE JEFFERSON-JACKSON DINNER — October 24
Of the four major events of the month, this is easily the least known but one of its most consequential. A fund-raising dinner for Iowa Democrats, the party’s major Presidential candidates traditionally speak to try to wow the faithful to get them to vote on the so-influential Iowa causes in February. Here’s why it’s significant.
In October 2007, Clinton was far-and-away the front-runner for the Democratic nomination until an October debate where she appeared wishy-washy over the question of drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants. It was at that moment that Clinton looked possibly vulnerable for the first time. However, she had the chance to regain her footing at that year’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner a short time later. She didn’t, offering a rote speech that did nothing to energize the party, which was bad enough. Her main rival, Barack Obama, however, spoke without notes and delivered a barnburner of a speech that prompted Iowa Democrats to give him a second look, a moment that undoubtedly helped to propel him to win the Iowa caucuses in 2008. After that, he never looked back.
Cut to Saturday night. Instead of walking wounded into the JJ Dinner (as it is called) as she did in 2007, Clinton came in with a head of steam from the Benghazi hearings. And while she did not score the same home run that she did at the hearings, she hit a solid double, delivering a plain-spoken speech that did include one veiled swipe at Bernie Sanders:
“It’s not enough to just rail against Republicans and billionaires. We have to win this election.”
For Sanders, he used the dinner to execute a complete change of tactics, perhaps due to criticism that he went too easy on Clinton in the debate. He went after her hard on trade, super PACs, Wall Street and, most personally, on LGBT rights, noting that he has opposed discrimination “against our gay brothers and sisters all along.” Clinton famously opposed marriage equality until 2013. Sanders’ speech likely fired up his supporters, but his new direct attack strategy against Clinton may well jeopardize the good will he engendered among moderate voters from his magnanimous debate performance. Polls will tell. As for Clinton, at least, this JJ Dinner allowed her to continue her momentum.
She is not out of the woods yet. The FBI is still investigating whether or not the use of her private e-mail server was legal. She made assertions in her Benghazi testimony that, while convincing, may or may not turn out to be true. And there are lingering questions about the role of foreign charitable contributions to the Clinton Foundation and whether they influenced her decisions as Secretary of State.
But certainly she has gotten over the enormous hump that has faced her the last 12 days. While it may not yet be enough to get her to that inaugural podium in 2017, it has unquestionably helped to turn around the direction of what was once a troubled campaign.
