NOVEMBER 2, 2015
Every year we get the same Oscar party line about the Best Actress race — if only there were more leading women who could turn in Oscar-worthy performances. Blah, blah, blah. Not this year. If you look at the field, this is one of the most exciting Best Actress races that we’ve seen in years. Let’s focus on ten women who have the best shot of making the Final Five.
CATE BLANCHETT (“Carol”)
Blanchett actually has two horses in this race — her take on “60 Minutes” producer Mary Mapes in “Truth” garnered her good notices but the film died in theaters, so it will likely be her performance in Todd Haynes’ “Carol” that will be her ticket to the Oscars. As a 1950s New Jersey housewife who falls in love with a pretty young store clerk (Rooney Mara), Blanchett got great reviews at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, and her campaign will be spearheaded by Oscar King Harvey Weinstein, so look out. Still Cate would be going for Oscar #3, and she only recently won for “Blue Jasmine,” two big factors that could work against her.
BLYTHE DANNER (“I’ll See You In My Dreams”)
My pick for the sleeper nomination in this category. The veteran Emmy and Tony-winning star has had less of a presence in the movie world, despite being widely seen as the mom in the “Fockers” series of films. However, she came back strong in this summer’s unexpected hit about Carol, a 70-something widow who is encouraged by her friends to get back into the dating world. What could have been cutesy-poo in another actress’ hands is given gravitas by Danner, who makes you feel with her every move that she’s still grieving the loss of her husband. This is totally in the Academy voters’ demographic, and it helped that it was the first screener sent to voters this fall when they still had time on their hands to watch it.
BRIE LARSON (“Room”)
As I noted in my review last week of “Room,” Brie Larson’s Joy is one of the most complex characters in any film this year. Abducted as a teen and held captive as a sex slave in a shed for seven years, she is the mother of 5 year-old Jack, whose only world is what he knows as Room. Despite their captivity, Joy creates a world of imagination inside Room for Jack, but when the opportunity for freedom arrives, Joy is unexpectedly plunged into a world of despair. Larson has it all — a character that allows her to show a wide range of emotion, several buzzy Oscar-bait scenes and a great new-actress-breaks-through storyline that has proven to be successful in the past. A Top 3 contender for sure.
JENNIFER LAWRENCE (“Joy”)
David O. Russell’s latest collaboration with Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy” is one of the few Oscar films that has yet to be screened, but from the extensive trailer that Fox recently released, it looks like Lawrence is in top form. Domesticity, jail time, home shopping TV stardom and a gun. What more do you need? Lawrence’s last two outings with Russell brought her an Oscar (“Silver Linings Playbook”) and a nomination (“American Hustle”), so there’s every reason to believe that, given what’s in the trailer, a three-peat nomination is likely. A Top 3 contender — on paper.
CAREY MULLIGAN (“Suffragette”)
Mulligan had a significant critical hit earlier this year with “Far From the Madding Crowd,” in which she gave one of her best performances in years. Had that been released now, a Mulligan nomination would have been considered a near certainty. However, it became clear that Mulligan’s ticket to the Oscars was deigned to rest on “Suffragette,” which opened last week. The problem is that “Suffragette,” though receiving good reviews (73% favorable on Rotten Tomatoes), did not receive the kind of acclaim that “Madding Crowd” (85% favorable) did. Will Fox Searchlight aggressively campaign for Mulligan for “Madding Crowd,” knowing that it will step on the “Suffragette” campaign and possibly split the vote for an actress they would like to see nominated? One of the more interesting subplots in this category.
CHARLOTTE RAMPLING (“45 Years”)
The much-respected Rampling has been an international star for the last 50 years, from “Georgy Girl” and Visconti’s “The Damned” in the 1960s to Francois Ozon’s “Under the Sand” and “Swimming Pool” in the 2000s. An Oscar nomination has always eluded the acclaimed British actress, but that may soon change with “45 Years,” written and directed by Andrew Heigh (“Weekend,” HBO’s “Looking”). Rampling portrays Kate, a provincial woman looking forward to her 45th wedding anniversary when she receives news about her husband Geoff (Tom Courtenay) that throws their marriage into chaos. For her performance, Rampling won the Golden Bear at the Berlin Film Festival as Best Actress. She’s going to need some more critics awards to get over the hump, but this is another performance (like Danner’s) that hits where the Academy voters live, so this long-shot is not out of the question.
SAOIRSE RONAN (“Brooklyn”)
Having been previously nominated for “Atonement” in 2008, Saoirse Ronan, even at age 21, is in the Oscar club. As they say, once nominated, you’re always a threat, and she is this year with the small indie “Brooklyn.” The time is 1952 and Eilis (Ronan) is an Irish emigre who falls in love with an Italian-American boy Tony (Emory Cohen) in Brooklyn, which seems to indicate a direct romantic path until Eilis gets a call from home directing her to get back to Ireland quickly for a family emergency. The reviews for “Brooklyn” are stellar (currently 100% favorable on Rotten Tomatoes, though it’s early), with most of the praise going to Ronan’s delicate performance. Delicate is an attribute that can sometimes be overlooked in the Oscar nomination world, but as one of the most respected actresses of her generation, Ronan is sure to get considered.
MAGGIE SMITH (“The Lady In the Van”)
She’s Maggie Freakin’ Smith for God’s sakes, and that’s why she’s here. However, this is a very different Maggie Smith, not the nose-in-the-air “Gosford Park”/Dowager Countess Maggie, whom we adore, but the real-life persona of a ornery homeless woman, Mary Shepherd, who temporarily parks her van in the driveway of playwright Alan Bennett and proceeds to stay there for 15 years. Bennett turned his real-life experience with Mary into a 1999 hit play in London, with Smith garnering an Olivier Award nomination, as well as a 2009 Radio 4 adaptation in which she also starred. This Bennett-written film, directed by Nicholas Hynter, is Smith’s third crack at the role, and with the support of Oscar-savvy Sony Pictures Classics, the performance will certainly get widely seen, and Smith has the intangible advantage of being beloved. And in a race like this, that can mean everything.
CHARLIZE THERON (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
The wild card in the race. It’s rare that an action-driven tentpole summertime release gets the kind of rave reviews that “Mad Max: Fury Road” received. (It’s certainly in my Top 2 so far this year.) And the heart and soul of the film is Theron’s Imperator Furiosa, a warrior who is trying to save five women selected for breeding by tyrant Immortan Joe. Despite the charismatic presence of Tom Hardy as Max, “Fury Road” is Theron’s show from start to finish. She is the driver of the action in a way that I haven’t seen since Sigourney Weaver in “Aliens,” which also resulted in a Best Actress Oscar nomination. Theron’s already in the Oscar club, given her 2004 Best Actress win for “Monster,” and a nomination for this kind of role in this kind of film would be oh-so satisfying.
LILY TOMLIN (“Grandma”)
Tomlin’s last Oscar nomination was 40 years ago for her brilliant performance as the mother of two deaf children in Robert Altman’s “Nashville.” Now she’s back and has a chance to return to the Big Dance with “Grandma,” Paul Weitz’s portrait of a 70-something lesbian grandma, who, in order to raise the funds for her 16 year-old granddaughter’s abortion, must go back and revisit people throughout her life whom she may have wronged and to whom she must make amends. The film’s mix of comedy and drama is tailor-made for Tomlin, who knocks it out of the park. With Blanchett, Larson and Lawrence as probable locks, Tomlin is on the bubble for an Oscar nomination, but the fact that Fox has determined that rival Jennifer Lawrence will compete in the drama category at the Golden Globes for “Joy” clears the way for Tomlin in the comedy category at the Globes, which could be a big leg up for that fifth Oscar slot.
The jockeying for position in the Oscar race has already begun, but perhaps the best thing about these hopefuls is that it’s almost guaranteed that we’re going to have 5 very worthy Best Actress nominees.
