FEBRUARY 25, 2016
This is the column I have most dreaded to write all year and the one I’ll most regret re-reading on Monday morning.
Since we began Exact Change Today in August, we have ridden the Oscar train together all season with its ups and downs and sudden switches and unexpected snubs. I have fancied myself the Grand Poobah of all-seeing and all-knowing Oscar tidbits. But this weekend, I fear that I will be exposed as the charlatan that I am. But knowing that many of you will have to have your office Oscar pools ready by end-of-business-day on Friday, here are a few thoughts that make perfect sense to me on Thursday but will likely look perfectly foolish by Monday. Let’s go!
BEST PICTURE:
“The Big Short”
“Bridge of Spies”
“Brooklyn”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
* “The Revenant”
“Room”
“Spotlight”
Usually this is one of the easiest categories to pick. The 3 most accurate guides to predict the Best Picture winner are the Producers Guild (PGA), the Directors Guild (DGA) and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG). It’s easy — whatever film wins all 3 or at least 2 of the 3 is your Best Picture. Piece of cake. Not this year. The PGA picked “The Big Short,” the DGA went with “The Revenant” and the SAG Ensemble Award went to “Spotlight.” Oh, great. My gut, though, tells me is that it will be “The Revenant,” and not just because it has the most nominations (12). “Spotlight” and “The Big Short” are both script-driven exposes on recent history and as they largely appeal to the same audience, they may split the vote, leaving the rest to the very visually-told story of “The Revenant.”
BEST DIRECTOR:
“The Big Short” (Adam McKay)
“Mad Max: Fury Road” (George Miller)
* “The Revenant” (Alejandro G. Iñárritu)
“Room” (Lenny Abrahamson)
“Spotlight” (Tom McCarthy)
It’s been 65 years since a director won back-to-back directing Oscars (Joseph Mankiewicz for “A Letter to Three Wives” and “All About Eve,” if you must know), but Iñárritu, last year’s Best Director winner for “Birdman,” is poised to do it again. He also won the DGA Award, which is by far the most reliable indicator of your Oscar winner. If voters don’t want to make history, 70 year-old George Miller, who made the coolest movie of the year with “Mad Max: Fury Road,” would be a worthy alternative.
BEST ACTOR:
Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”)
Matt Damon (“The Martian”)
* Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)
Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”)
Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
Five acting nominations, no wins. Beloved. DiCaprio. Let’s move on.
BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett (“Carol”)
* Brie Larson (“Room”)
Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”)
Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”)
This was poised to be a Larson/Ronan race, but Larson has swept the board awards-wise, and I see no reason for her not to complete the sweep. (At age 21, Ronan will certainly be back.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christian Bale (“The Big Short”)
Tom Hardy (“The Revenant”)
Mark Ruffalo (“Spotlight”)
Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”)
* Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)
Because his surge started late, Stallone was not nominated for a SAG Award (Idris Elba won) or a British BAFTA Award (the possible spoiler Mark Rylance won). But when Stallone has been nominated for this performance, he has always won, and Oscar would be hard-pressed to pass up the chance to give Rocky Balboa that much longed-for standing ovation.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”)
Rooney Mara (“Carol”)
Rachel McAdams (“Spotlight”)
* Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)
Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)
I’ve been whining all season about the category fraud here — Mara and Vikander are clearly the co-leads of their films — to no avail. Both have hit the campaign trail, but Mara has reportedly been cool while Vikander is said to be charming, which always carries the day in Oscar campaigns. The dark horse here is truly- supporting Kate Winslet who beat Vikander for both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, but in both cases, Vikander was nominated for her truly-supporting performance in “Ex Machina.” My guess is that Vikander toughs it out for the win.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
* “The Big Short” (Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay)
“Brooklyn” (Screenplay by Nick Hornby)
“Carol” (Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy)
“The Martian” (Screenplay by Drew Goddard)
“Room” (Screenplay by Emma Donoghue)
Here’s where “The Big Short” gets its due. This is a terrific category, with all 5 scripts bringing out the best from their literary sources. Any one would be a worthy winner.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
“Bridge of Spies” (Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen)
“Ex Machina” (Written by Alex Garland)
“Inside Out” (Screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original story by Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen)
* “Spotlight” (Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy)
“Straight Outta Compton” (Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff)
And here’s where “Spotlight” gets its due. I adore the screenplay to “Spotlight” — it’s beautifully constructed, working as a thriller but taking the time to spread the guilt all around. (Hey, I was raised Roman Catholic.) But my heart belongs to the screenplay of “Inside Out” — my choice as the year’s Best Picture — for its incredibly imaginative realization of personifying a teenage girl’s emotions, a high-wire act I’ve never seen the likes of in a live-action film, much less an animated one.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
“Carol” (Ed Lachman)
“The Hateful Eight” (Robert Richardson)
“Mad Max: Fury Road” (John Seale)
* “The Revenant” (Emmanuel Lubezki)
“Sicario” (Roger Deakins)
Another heart/head dilemma, as my heart belongs to Roger Deakins, a 13-time nominee with 0 wins, who provided some of the year’s most evocative images in the magnificent “Sicario.” But there’s no denying that Lubezki did breathtaking work in the wild in “The Revenant.” Lubezki won the Oscar in 2014 for “Gravity” and again in 2015 for “Birdman.” No cinematographer in Academy history has ever won 3 Oscars in a row. Prepare for history to be made on stage at the Dolby Theatre on Sunday night.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
“Carol” (Sandy Powell)
“Cinderella” (Sandy Powell)
“The Danish Girl” (Paco Delgado)
* “Mad Max: Fury Road” (Jenny Beavan)
“The Revenant” (Jacqueline West)
Sandy Powell has had a great year, creating cool period costumes for “Carol” and gloriously over-the-top frocks for “Cinderella.” But this race is between Delgado’s costumes for “The Danish Girl,” a film where costuming plays a very important part, and Beavan’s wild clothing-of-the-future for “Mad Max.” “The Danish Girl” is the safe choice, but I think the Academy will go with Beavan for the craziest costumes since “The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert” took the prize over 20 years ago.
BEST FILM EDITING:
“The Big Short” (Hank Corwin)
* “Mad Max: Fury Road” (Margaret Sixel)
“The Revenant” (Stephen Mirrione)
“Spotlight” (Tom McArdle)
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey)
This is a key category, since every Best Picture needs to score a nomination here. There are many advocates of Corwin’s work in “The Big Short,” but I think the Oscar will go to Sixel’s extraordinary achievement cutting those elaborate battle scenes in “Mad Max: Fury Road.”
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
* “Mad Max: Fury Road” (Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin)
“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared” (Love Larson and Eva von Bahr)
“The Revenant” (Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini)
Reading these nominations would probably elicit a “What?” reaction at the nomination of “The 100-Year-Old Man…”. But I’ve seen this delightful Swedish comedy (yes, a good Swedish comedy — Netflix it!), and the makeup work, turning this young actor into a believable centenarian, is extraordinary. A very discerning nomination. Still, it doesn’t have a chance. The makeup in “The Revenant” is fine, but it’s nowhere near the inspired hair and makeup of the inhabitants of the “Mad Max” world.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
“Bridge of Spies”
“The Danish Girl”
* “Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
Usually this award goes to “Downton Abbey”-type films, but I think that the imaginative feat of creating a world out of nothing here in “Mad Max: Fury Road” far surpasses any of the other nominees.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
“Bridge of Spies” (Thomas Newman)
“Carol” (Carter Burwell)
* “The Hateful Eight” (Ennio Morricone)
“Sicario” (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (John Williams)
This is a heart/heart situation. My favorite score of the year is Jóhannsson’s for “Sicario” — it scared the crap out of me, and it’s been years since I could say that about a score. But the fact that the legendary Ennio Morricone is in the running for a competitive Oscar, nine years after receiving an honorary Oscar for his lifetime achievement, is thrilling. He’s one of the greatest living film composers, and it would be a thrill to hear his name after the envelope is opened. And thank you, Quentin, for making this happen.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
“Earned It” (“Fifty Shades of Grey”) (Music and Lyric by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio)
“Manta Ray” (“Racing Extinction”) (Music by J. Ralph and Lyric by Antony Hegarty)
“Simple Song #3” (“Youth”) (Music and Lyric by David Lang)
* “Til It Happens To You” (“The Hunting Ground”) (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga)
“Writing’s On The Wall” (“Spectre”) (Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith)
Another film composing legend, Diane Warren, on her eighth nomination with no wins, I think may have the winning hand this time, in partnership with Lady Gaga. The pair collaborated on “‘Til It Happens To You,” which adds a powerful layer to “The Hunting Ground,” the acclaimed documentary on the epidemic of rape on college campuses. The music branch has been very accommodating to songs in documentaries, and in what has been a subtle but steady campaign through Oscar voting season, I suspect the Warren/Gaga team will prevail. But watch out for the Golden Globe winner, “Writing’s On The Wall,” written by Jimmy Napes and awards magnet Sam Smith.
BEST SOUND EDITING:
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
* “The Revenant”
“Sicario”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
All right, class, let’s go over this one more time. Sound editing is the actual creation of all the non-musical sound effects in a film — flying birds, snapping twigs, wind, etc. plus dialogue. Sound mixing is taking all those elements together and creating a symphony of sound. For the sound creation, I’d go with “The Revenant,” simply because many of the sounds here are like nothing I’ve ever heard in a film before.
BEST SOUND MIXING:
“Bridge of Spies” Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo
“The Martian” Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth
“The Revenant” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
As for the actual blending of those sounds, I have a hunch that they’ll stick with “The Revenant.”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
“Ex Machina”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
* “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
“Mad Max” had some mad visual effects, but when I think of effects in a film this year, I immediately think of “The Force Awakens,” and this is the one logical place where they can honor the film.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
“Anomalisa”
“Boy and the World”
* “Inside Out”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie”
“When Marnie Was There”
Anybody have a problem with that? I didn’t think so.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
* “Amy”
“Cartel Land”
“The Look of Silence”
“What Happened, Miss Simone?”
“Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom”
Ever since the rules changed and the entire Academy membership can vote on documentaries, docs dealing with music (“Searching for Sugar Man,” “20 Feet From Stardom”) have largely ruled the roost here, so the crowd-pleasing “Amy” is your likely winner.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
“Embrace of the Serpent” (Colombia)
“Mustang” (France)
* “Son of Saul” (Hungary)
“Theeb” (Jordan)
“A War” (Denmark)
This is a great collection of foreign-language films. “Embrace of the Serpent” just opened this weekend to excellent reviews. Denmark’s “A War,” favorably reviewed in Exact Change Today last week, and Jordan’s “Theeb,” which was one of my 10 best films of 2015, are terrific choices. France’s wonderful “Mustang,” which has recently received a big push in the LA press, is a possible spoiler. But the Oscar should go to the enormously-deserving Holocaust drama “Son of Saul” from Hungary. It’s now playing all across the United States, and if it’s anywhere near you, do yourself a favor and catch it.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
“Bear Story”
“Prologue”
“Sanjay’s Super Team”
“We Can’t Live without Cosmos”
* “World of Tomorrow”
We now come to the three categories where office Oscar pools are won and lost. One year, I made a point of seeing every nominee in these three categories and then predicted the best in each bunch. I got skunked on all three, so it’s back to being in the dark with you. “Sanjay’s Super Team” is the most widely-seen (it ran in theaters before “The Good Dinosaur”), it’s Pixar, and it’s about a young Indian boy, welcome diversity in a year that needs it. But Pixar hasn’t won this category in 15 years. So I’m going with “World of Tomorrow,” a beautifully drawn film about a little girl who gets a call from herself from 227 years into the future.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
“Ave Maria”
“Day One”
“Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)”
* “Shok”
“Stutterer”
While many are predicting “Ave Maria” (5 West Bank nuns meet up with an Israeli settler family) and “Stutterer” (a young man with a speech impediment must face his fears), I’m going with “Shok” about two young boys who fight for survival during the Kosovo War. Because, why not?
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
“Body Team 12”
“Chau, Beyond the Lines”
“Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah”
* “A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness”
“Last Day of Freedom”
This is the feel-bad category of the year with “Body Team 12” (body collectors during the Ebola outbreak) and “Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah” (noted filmmaker discusses how he made his landmark Holocaust documentary “Shoah”). My pick in this sea of misery is “A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness”(Pakistani “honor killings,” where thousands of women are murdered by their families so they can save face with their neighbors). Ebola and the Holocaust are familiar subjects to me, but honor killings I didn’t know much about, so I think other voters might be curious too.
I beg you, don’t wager your mortgage payment or your first-born on these predictions — the Academy mindset is inscrutable at times. Just sit back, watch the show and hope that host Chris Rock skewers the hand that feeds him. I think that might be the easiest prediction of the night. Happy Oscar Day, everyone!
