FEBRUARY 22, 2016
Time is running out to stop Donald Trump.
Trump roared to an 11-point victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, thoroughly clobbering his opponents and picking up all 50 delegates in the South Carolina delegation. Trump currently has 67 delegates pledged to him, with Cruz and Rubio way behind with 11 and 10 respectively. That’s how far ahead Trump is at this moment.
There’s still time to catch Trump, but the clock is ticking, and those in the establishment lane need to coalesce around one candidate yesterday. The field did narrow by one after the South Carolina results, as Jeb Bush decided to throw in the towel, but if the establishment choice is Marco Rubio, who barely edged out Ted Cruz for second place, there’s still John Kasich in the race draining votes away from Rubio, thus making it easier for Trump to triumph.
On the Democratic side, the action was in the Nevada caucuses, where Hillary Clinton won a solid (but not overwhelming) victory over New Hampshire winner Bernie Sanders. Had Clinton lost Nevada after her New Hampshire defeat, it would have been panic time in Clintonland, so at least she avoided that. But she needs to keep her momentum going in this Saturday’s primary in South Carolina if she is to right the ship completely. (Why the parties have voting in different states on different days…well, don’t ask.)
Here are the results for this weekend’s contenders:
REPUBLICANS — SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
Donald Trump (33%) — Trump won voters across the board — men, women, voters without a college degree, white evangelicals, non-evangelicals, conservative voters and veterans. It was a rout, and Trump is heavily favored to win the next Republican contest, this Tuesday’s caucuses in Nevada. The Trump train is leaving the station, and it is becoming increasingly challenging for the other four remaining GOP candidates to catch up.
Marco Rubio (22%) — Slipping past Cruz by a mere 1100 votes to take second in South Carolina was nonetheless a crucial move for Rubio, as he rebounded strongly after his disastrous fifth-place finish in New Hampshire. Instrumental in that rise was a key endorsement by popular SC Governor Nikki Haley, and seeing these two attractive younger politicos on stage must have engendered thoughts of a dream ticket for the fall by party elders. But Rubio has to start winning something soon — these runner-up results will take him just so far after a while.
Ted Cruz (22%) — This 3rd-place finish was a tough loss for Cruz, who needed to continue to be seen as the only alternative to Trump. South Carolina is rife with white evangelicals, who were the key to Cruz’s victory in Iowa, and losing them to Trump here raises the question, “If Cruz can’t win here, where else can he win?” The Super Tuesday primaries on March 1 may be make or break for the Texas senator.
Jeb Bush (8%) — Yet another primary result placing him in the lower tier for a campaign that was hemorrhaging money on pricey TV ads that did little to move the needle. South Carolina was probably the last state that Bush could lose and get out with some modicum of dignity. Now that Jeb’s gone, who’s going to be Donald Trump’s foil now?
John Kasich (8%) — Losing 4th place to Bush by 1600 votes was a steep comedown for the Ohio governor after his 2nd-place finish in New Hampshire. It’s hard to see where Kasich now has a path to the nomination, so I would expect to see GOP elders lean heavily on him to get out of the race to clear a path for Rubio as the establishment candidate. Kasich doubtless wants to stay in the race until the March 15 Ohio primary, but in this campaign, that’s a loooong way away.
Ben Carson (7%) — Wait. What? He’s still running? Why? The door’s over there, doctor.
DEMOCRATS — NEVADA CAUCUSES
Hillary Clinton (52%) — If Clinton lost Nevada after losing big in New Hampshire, the “Hillary’s finished” meme would be all over the internet, so she dodged that bullet. The big test for her will be South Carolina, which time after time has been called her firewall because of her popularity with African-Americans, who comprise 60% of Democratic voters in the state. If she pulls it out on Saturday, New Hampshire will look more like a temporary hiccup, and it’s full speed ahead to the nomination. But if she doesn’t…….
Bernie Sanders (47%) — Sanders made a big play to woo the Latino vote in Nevada, but it fell short. Now the clock is working against Bernie. He’s been trying to make inroads among black voters the past few weeks, but given Clinton’s long history with the African-American community, it’s likely too little too late. Then we have Super Tuesday, taking place mainly in the South again with large groups of black voters, and the numbers don’t look good for Sanders.
The Nevada caucuses for Republicans takes place this Tuesday, Feb. 23, and the Democratic primary in South Carolina takes place on Saturday, Feb. 27. Full results and snark can be found right here.
