MARCH 16, 2016
Photo: Getty
Although President Obama hijacked the news cycle on Wednesday morning with his nomination of Judge Merrick Garland to the U.S. Supreme Court, don’t underestimate the significant impact that Tuesday night’s primary results will have on the race to succeed Obama as President.
While her nomination is not yet mathematically clinched, Hillary Clinton made huge strides last night in separating herself from Bernie Sanders, sweeping all 5 states holding primaries, including a big win in Ohio. That Ohio win was significant, since that Rust Belt state has much the same demographics as Michigan where Sanders won a surprise victory last Tuesday. Plus, Ohio is one of the biggest of the swing states and has recently provided the key as to who will win in the general election this fall.
For Donald Trump, Tuesday was a good news/bad news night. The very good news is that he won 4 of the 5 primaries last night, including the winner-take-all state of Florida, which sent Marco Rubio packing, and in a squeaker, Missouri, where Ted Cruz had campaigned heavily. The near-sweep only lengthened Trump’s delegate lead over Cruz to 253.
The bad news for Trump was that John Kasich took the big winner-take-all primary in his home state, Ohio, winning by double digits over Trump. The 66 Ohio delegates now in Kasich’s column do little to change the math — Kasich is too far behind Trump in delegates to be a genuine threat to win the nomination — but it does make Trump’s path to getting to the 1,237 delegates needed to nominate a lot more difficult and increases the chance that the Republicans will be facing a dangerous open convention next July in Cleveland.
Despite his previous vow to campaign on even if he lost Florida, Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state by 19 points to Trump. Rubio’s concession speech was extremely gracious (where was this candidate throughout the campaign?) which will serve him well in his future political plans.
What’s next for these candidates?
DEMOCRATS
HILLARY CLINTON (won 5 states — FL, IL, MO, NC, OH) — Though her wins in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina were decisive, her victories in Illinois and Missouri were close, so, as much as she’d like to turn her full attention to attacking Trump, she still needs to keep an eye on Sanders. But the sweep last night can only add to her momentum, and by extending her delegate lead over the Vermont senator, she made Sanders’ path to the nomination a lot more difficult.
BERNIE SANDERS (won zero states) — Last night was a tough one for Sanders, who had been riding high since last week’s Michigan upset win. He had been campaigning particularly hard in Illinois and Missouri, but he was nosed out at the finish line by Clinton. The calendar ahead looks good for a number of Sanders victories, but since the Democrats don’t have winner-take-all primaries and delegates are assigned proportionally to the vote, even if Sanders wins a state, Clinton is still going to win a whole pile of delegates, making it extremely difficult for Sanders to chip away at Clinton’s current 708 delegate lead. A very tough road ahead.
REPUBLICANS
DONALD TRUMP (won 4 states — FL, IL, MO, NC) — Though Trump had a great night, the Kasich win in Ohio made his road to winning the 1,237 delegates need to clinch the nomination outright just a little more difficult. Though the calendar favors Trump’s continued success, particularly in the delegate-rich states of New York and California, Trump should be careful where he picks his battles so as to maximize his delegate count. Trump, of course, is interested in no such thing. Just this morning, he warned the Republican elite that if the nomination is taken from him on the convention floor, there would be “riots” on the streets of Cleveland. And after Trump announced that he will not be attending Monday night’s scheduled GOP debate, Fox News decided to cancel the whole thing rather than have a Trump-less debate. Such is the power of Trump.
TED CRUZ (won zero states) — With most of the states with evangelicals having already voted, Cruz’ path to the nomination looks increasingly difficult, and Kasich’s victory in Ohio complicates Cruz’s dream of having a one-on-one shootout with Trump, which Cruz believes he could win. With Kasich dividing up the anti-Trump vote even further, Cruz may need to change his strategy from winning the nomination to amassing enough delegates to prevent Trump from getting a first-ballot victory.
JOHN KASICH (won 1 state — OH) — Kasich’s first win in the campaign has provided a huge psychological boost to his struggling campaign, with donations to his campaign likely to be boosted as well. In addition, with Rubio out of the race, Kasich is the last Establishment candidate standing — who could have predicted that two months ago? — and provides GOP voters an alternative to the ravings of Trump and Cruz. Yet those commentators who are pushing Kasich as a moderate couldn’t be more wrong — his policies are firmly in right-wing wacko territory, despite his sunny disposition.
MARCO RUBIO (won zero states) — With Rubio dropping out of the campaign, the big question is “Where will Rubio’s 172 delegates go?”, now that they’re free to align with another candidate. With Trump’s constant mocking of “Little Marco” on the campaign trail, it would seem unlikely that they would flock to Trump, but stranger things have happened. If they go to either Cruz or Kasich in large numbers, it would certainly give that candidate added momentum at a time that he would probably need it most.
Enough speculation, let’s get to the real numbers and find out where the horse race stands today.
THE DELEGATE COUNT
DEMOCRATS (2,383 needed to win)
Hillary Clinton 1,202 (plus 364 pledged delegates won last night) = 1,566
Bernie Sanders 576 (plus 282 pledged delegates) = = 858
REPUBLICANS (1,237 needed to win)
Donald Trump 462 (plus 204 pledged delegates) = 666 (how appropos)
Ted Cruz 376 (plus 37 pledged delegates) = 413
Marco Rubio 166 (plus 6 pledged delegates) = 172
John Kasich 63 (plus 79 pledged delegates) = 137
Next Tuesday is our next big stop, with a GOP primary in Arizona and Democratic caucuses in Utah. Be there or be square!
