JANUARY 19, 2017
With the Trump Show rolling into D.C. this weekend, the blogs will soon be clogging the internet with their takes on the Big Carnival. What they may have forgotten, though, is that the real news will be made next Tuesday morning when the Motion Picture Academy will be announcing its nominees for the year’s best films.
The most important part of predicting what films will be nominated is not to look at the critics awards or the Golden Globes. Those voters are not members of the Academy and can’t vote on the Oscars. Look instead to the professional guilds (the directors, writers, producers and the crafts), each of which delivered their own nominations over the past few weeks. These are the voters to whom you need to pay attention because they do vote for the Oscar. Whatever films they supported for their guild awards, they’ll be likely to vote for again for the Academy Award.
What have the guild nominations told us? Who’s down? Probably critical darlings “Fences” and “Manchester By the Sea,” whose nomination count may be limited to acting and writing. On the other hand, “La La Land” continues its race toward the Oscar with full speed, but it may be facing an unexpected challenge from “Hidden Figures,” the NASA-based story that’s gaining significant strength. This could be shaping up to be a potentially surprising list of nominees.
So, with one final gulp, here are my best guesses as to whose names will be read Tuesday morning at 8:00am ET/5:00am PT.
BEST PICTURE (presuming there are 10 nominees)
“Arrival”
“Deadpool”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester By the Sea”
“Moonlight”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
Ever since early fall, the Best Picture race has come down to three films — “Moonlight,” “La La Land” and “Manchester By the Sea” — and nothing has come along to dislodge them. Your winner will be likely one of those three. But coming up fast on the outside is the audience favorite “Hidden Figures,” which may surprise on Tuesday with way more nominations than anyone might expect. And after the nominations of the industry guilds, the chances of “Lion” and (shockingly) “Deadpool” have improved considerably.
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck (“Manchester By the Sea”)
Andrew Garfield (“Hacksaw Ridge”)
Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”)
Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”)
Denzel Washington (“Fences”)
LOOK OUT FOR:
Tom Hanks (“Sully”)
Affleck has been leading this category for months now, and for a while there was a plausible argument that Washington’s more out-there performance could give him a run, but the guilds have been decidedly soft on “Fences,” so Denzel’s chances might be slipping away.
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams (“Arrival”)
Taraji P. Henson (“Hidden Figures”)
Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”)
Natalie Portman (“Jackie”)
Emma Stone (“La La Land”)
LOOK OUT FOR:
Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”)
Usually it’s the Best Actor race that is bursting with too many contenders, but not this year. It’s the women who’ve been calling the shots. For months, it has been a Portman vs. Stone race — Portman has largely been winning the critics awards, but “La La Land’s” success has been pushing Stone to the forefront. Huppert’s Golden Globe Best Actress win over Portman has improved her chances considerably. Overdue Annette Bening for “20th Century Women” was once thought to be a lock, but her momentum is fading, and she may be overtaken by Henson who might ride “Hidden Figures'” momentum into the Top 5. The most intriguing question is whether Donald Trump’s attack on Meryl Streep can produce enough groundswell of support that gets her to her 20th nomination?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”)
Jeff Bridges (“Hell or High Water”)
Hugh Grant (“Florence Foster Jenkins”)
Lucas Hedges (“Manchester By the Sea”)
Dev Patel (“Lion”)
LOOK OUT FOR:
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (“Nocturnal Animals”)
Ali has been leading the pack since early fall, and aside from a brief scare with Taylor-Johnson’s win at the Golden Globes, things still look strong for the “Moonlight” actor. Bridges is solidly in there and ready to take over the lead if, for any reason, Ali implodes. (Not likely)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis (“Fences”)
Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”)
Nicole Kidman (“Lion”)
Octavia Spencer (“Hidden Figures”)
Michelle Williams (“Manchester By the Sea”)
LOOK OUT FOR:
Greta Gerwig (“20th Century Women”)
Williams seemed to have this race in hand until Paramount decided to submit Davis as Supporting Actress rather than Best Actress, the category she won at the Tony Awards for the same role. That was game, set, match — bet the rent money on a Davis victory. The other question here is who will get the 5th slot. Gerwig was thought to have the best chance, but her film seems to be fading, while “Hidden Figures” appears to be rising, so I think the nod will go to previous winner Octavia Spencer. That would make three women of color nominated in this category. #oscarsnotsowhiteanymore
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”)
Mel Gibson (“Hacksaw Ridge”)
Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”)
Kenneth Lonergan (“Manchester By the Sea”)
Denis Villeneuve (“Arrival”)
LOOK OUT FOR:
David Mackenzie (“Hell or High Water”)
Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan and Villeneuve have been locked in for a while, so the big question is “Who will get the 5th slot?” Garth Davis, who directed “Lion,” got the 5th slot in the Directors Guild nominations, and there’s been much talk admiring the work of David Mackenzie for “Hell or High Water.” But I have a hunch that the Directors Branch may want to make a statement and offer an “all is forgiven” nomination to former winner Mel Gibson. If that happens, it will likely be the story of the day.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Heisserer (“Arrival”)
Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan (“Hacksaw Ridge”)
Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi (“Hidden Figures”)
Luke Davies (“Lion”)
Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”)
LOOK OUT FOR:
Tom Ford (“Nocturnal Animals”)
This has been a category of moving pieces all year, and I think “Moonlight” and “Hidden Figures” are the only sure things. And for writing “Nocturnal Animals,” Ford could easily get into the final 5.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Matt Ross (“Captain Fantastic”)
Taylor Sheridan (“Hell or High Water”)
Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou (“The Lobster”)
Kenneth Lonergan (“Manchester By the Sea”)
LOOK OUT FOR:
Jared Bush, Phil Johnston (“Zootopia”)
Original scripts from animated films very often work their way into this category (“Inside Out” was a nominee here last year), and “Zootopia” has a particularly strong script with its subtext of racial discrimination. But I don’t know which of my predicted 5 I would kick out to make room for it.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Arrival”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
“Silence”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Nocturnal Animals”
BEST EDITING
“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Manchester By the Sea”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Allied”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Love & Friendship”
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
“Deadpool”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Star Trek Beyond”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“A Man Called Ove”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“The BFG”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Jackie”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (“La La Land”)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (“Trolls”)
“City of Stars” (“La La Land”)
“How Far I’ll Go” (“Moana”)
“Runnin'” (“Hidden Figures”)
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Never Give Up” (“Lion”)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Arrival”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
“Silence”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Hail Caesar!”
BEST SOUND EDITING
“Arrival”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Sully”
BEST SOUND MIXING
“Arrival”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Arrival”
“Doctor Strange”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them”
“The Jungle Book”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Deepwater Horizon”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“The Red Turtle”
“Zootopia”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Your Name.”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“13th”
“Cameraperson”
“Fire at Sea”
“I Am Not Your Negro”
“O.J.: Made in America”
LOOK OUT FOR:
“Life, Animated”
BEST FOREIGN FILM
“Land of Mine” (Denmark)
“A Man Called Ove” (Sweden)
“The Salesman” (Iran)
“Tanna” (Australia)
“Toni Erdmann” (Germany)
LOOK OUT FOR:
“My Life as a Zucchini”
Please, please if you are in any betting pool for these nominations, don’t wager any money on my picks. I have a terrible track record on predicting the nominees. But maybe, just maybe, a few of these will come through. Let’s reconvene on Tuesday when we find out which folks are named as the nominees for the 89th Academy Awards ceremony set for Sunday, February 26, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.
