JUNE 27, 2017
Photo: AP
On Tuesday Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that the much-anticipated Senate version of the GOP Trumpcare bill, on which he had firmly promised a final vote on Thursday, has been postponed until after the July 4th holiday. The reason for the postponement given was that some members asked for more time to read the bill and understand its implications, which is actually true.
What’s also true is that, as of Tuesday, the bill was in deep deep trouble in the Senate.
The trouble actually began several weeks ago when Republican members, faced with an approved House version of the bill decided to amend it. The commissioned 13 members, all white men, to fashion it into a version that could garner 51 votes in the full Senate.
The secrecy raised holy hell with the Democrats, who decried the process’ lack of transparency. The Democrats, you may remember, also wrote Obama’s Affordable Care Act in secret, and the Republicans whined about it then. So what’s good for the goose…
The revised secretly-written bill was presented to the world on June 22, and the grumblings about it began right from the get-go. Not surprisingly much of that grumbling came from more moderate Republicans, since the 13 white men proposed to cut funds for women’s health and defund Planned Parenthood entirely. I wouldn’t be surprised if McConnell expected to lose Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK).
He knew that he could lose those two votes and still be OK — a 50-50 tie would result in Vice-President Pence casting the deciding vote, and the bill would pass. But McConnell realized that he could afford no more defections.
Right on cue, four right-wing Senators — Rand Paul (R-KY), Ted Cruz (R-TX), Mike Lee (R-UT) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) announced that they were planning against the bill because it doesn’t repeal Obamacare, a promise that they had made to their constituents. (Many cynical analysts assume that Cruz, Lee and Johnson will come around if they each get a few goodies as enticement, but most think that Paul is a solid “no.”)
Then came the crusher. Sen Dean Heller (R-NV), thought to be a solid yes, announced that he would also vote no largely because of the bill’s huge cuts to Medicaid. As expected, Collins on Sunday also said that she was not only a no vote, but she would also vote against the bill even coming to the floor for debate. Yikes.
And the hits just came on coming for McConnell. On Monday, the Congressional Budget Office announced its analysis of the GOP Senate bill. The CBO is the office that determines the cost and savings that any bill can be expected to generate, and the news wasn’t good. According to the CBO study, if the GOP bill passes, more than 22 million Americans can expect to lose their health insurance by 2026. Suddenly GOP spokespeople began to disappear from the nation’s airwaves. By then, McConnell probably knew that if had forced a vote on Thursday, he would lose.
To add insult upon injury, shortly after McConnell’s announcement of the vote postponement, three more GOP Senators — Rob Portman (R-OH), Jerry Moran (R-KS) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) — announced that they were also prepared to vote no.
The bill will certainly be tinkered with over the holiday recess, but I can’t imagine what the tinkerers will be able to do to please so many different senators with so many different concerns. And the senators will have to return home to face their constituents in town hall meetings. That should be fun.
Remember, if three GOP senators vote no, the bill is dead. The current count of no votes is 9. Happy Fourth of July, Republicans!
