AUGUST 21, 2024
There’s a moment in every Emmy ceremony – whether in the Primetime or Creative Arts telecast – just after the envelope is opened and the winner is read that you think…
“How the hell did THAT happen?”
In an era when any number of award precursors seem to predestine who the Emmy winners will be, true upsets are increasingly rare. But, they do happen, and when they do, there’s the joy of seeing the shocked expression of the newly-crowned winner as they make their way to the stage to deliver a speech that they never thought they’d get the chance to say. It’s the kind of moment that we, the viewers, live for while watching award shows, a moment that sends a thrill down our spine and makes for a memorable awards season.
At first glance, there appears to be little room for upsets this year, as “Shōgun,” “The Bear,“ and “Baby Reindeer“ are expected to dominate their respective categories. But, upon closer inspection, there are a few categories that either have vulnerable front-runners or the potential for a split vote that could allow a surprise nominee to win. We’ve isolated five categories where this possibility may actually happen and centered on one nominee who – either through Emmy history or strength of performance – could be the one to give us that jaw-dropping surprise upset, adding an element of anticipation to the proceedings.
However, before we get to it, let’s define how we see a true upset. For example, in the Comedy Supporting Actress category, if Meryl Streep beats the favored Hannah Einbinder, that’s not a true upset; it’s just the other front-runner winning. For it to really be an upset, a nominee should be ranked no higher than third in our Next Best Picture rankings and preferably even lower than that, a standard each of the five below has met.
One more thing: These are NOT predictions of what will happen. In fact, there’s an enormous chance that none of these will happen. Yet, there’s still a tiny possibility that they could, and wouldn’t that be fun? So, keep that in mind as we ask, “What if?”
CHRISTOPHER LLOYD — Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series, “Hacks” (Max)
Here’s one Emmy statistic worth noting: Though Christopher Lloyd doesn’t get nominated for Primetime Emmy Awards very often when he does, he wins. Two supporting nominations for “Taxi?” He won both times. A guest actor shot on “Road to Avonlea?” He won that one, too, even if that series was never an Emmy favorite. Now, 32 years after his last win, Lloyd is back in a series that is indeed an Emmy powerhouse: “Hacks.” As Larry Arbuckle, the (fictional) grandson of silent movie comic Fatty Arbuckle, Lloyd steamrolls over Jimmy (Paul W. Downs) and Kayla (Megan Stalter) to make sure his screenplay about Fatty gets produced. It’s the kind of tour-de-force performance that we’ve come to expect from the beloved actor. Yes, Jon Bernthal and Ryan Gosling will likely be duking it out for the win, but don’t take your eyes off Lloyd coming up on the outside, trying to make it 4-for-4.
HOLLAND TAYLOR — Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
For her supporting work in “The Morning Show” – her ninth Emmy nomination – Taylor is cited for the most acclaimed performance since her 1999 Emmy win for “The Practice.” She has created an unforgettable character in Cybil Reynolds, a veteran member of the UBA board who, until now, has been the network’s soul of reason. But, when UBA executives’ private emails are hacked and made public, an email Cybil wrote in frustration at Black anchor Christine Hunter (Nicole Beharie) – referring to the anchor as “Aunt Jemima” – has devastating personal consequences. While Cybil’s actions are reprehensible, Taylor never makes her a racist monster. Instead, she plays her as a white woman from a different generation whose blind spot on race proves to be her undoing, and the result is a devastating performance. With Elizabeth Debicki and Lesley Manville potentially splitting “The Crown” vote, Taylor may have a lane to sneak right past them.
TADANOBU ASANO — Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, “Shōgun” (FX)
For any fan of “Shōgun,” mentioning the names of stars Hiroyuki Sanada and Anna Sawai would likely generate a nod of respect. But if you mention Tadanobu Asano, any true fan will likely respond with a huge smile. That’s because Asano’s character, Lord Kashigi Yabushige, is the live wire in the story’s tradition-bound 17th-century Japanese setting. Yabushige plays a dangerous high-wire game here; he’s fiercely loyal to Sanada’s Lord Toranaga (when it suits him), while at the same time plotting three steps ahead of everyone around him. He can boil a man to death in one moment, then be your best buddy in the next. To pull off a character like this requires a skilled actor with enormous charisma, a talent Asano has in abundance. If the three nominees from “The Morning Show” split the vote, Asano could slip down the middle for the win. If he could pull off a trick like that, Yabushige would be very proud.
QUIZ LADY (Hulu) — Outstanding Television Movie
Outstanding Television Movie has traditionally been one of the more serious-minded categories at the Emmy Awards, but for whatever reason, perhaps there is a need for a good laugh in our troubled times. – this year’s Emmy voters have embraced comedy, with four of the five nominees being, to varying degrees, comedies. Though Emmy prognosticators have long considered this a wide-open race with no clear front-runner, a consensus has been built suggesting that “Mr. Monk’s Last Case” and “Red, White & Royal Blue” are the current category leaders. But, if Emmy voters feel strongly about comedy, then the category’s dark horse should arguably be the funniest – and no, we’re not considering “Unfrosted.” After all, Jessica Yu’s “Quiz Lady” is stacked with Emmy nominees (Awkwafina, Sandra Oh, Will Farrell, Holland Taylor, and Yu herself), and the film has already won the WGA Award, as well as being nominated by the PGA. And, who among us hasn’t squabbled with their sister? At the wire, “Quiz Lady” might be that long shot that will actually come through.
JONATHAN PRYCE — Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Veteran actor Jonathan Pryce has been nominated for two Emmy Awards this year: as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series for “The Crown,” and here for his work as Guest Actor in “Slow Horses.” Even though he’s considered among the front-runners for the Supporting Actor race, given the intensity of the competition there, his better shot may actually be here in the Guest Actor contest. As retired MI5 officer David Cartwright and grandfather to River (Jack Lowden), who is having his own problems at Slough House, Pryce retains an air of mystery in his interactions with River and the team, especially with Slough House boss Jackson Lamb (Gary Oldman), with whom David has a history. Surprisingly, Pryce has never won an Emmy, and with a pair of comparatively soft front-runners here, he may finally be the slow horse that wins that elusive Emmy.
