JANUARY 11, 2016
What a difference two weeks makes! Since my first pass at Oscar nomination predictions on December 30, the race for the Academy Awards has shifted considerably. That’s because of the nominations from the all-important guilds and the British Academy (BAFTA), whose preference voting system mirrors the Oscars. (Less important are last night’s Golden Globes which, while it’s an entertaining drunkfest, reflects only the opinions of 90 foreign journalists who are not voting members of the Academy.)
So who’s up these past 2 weeks and who’s down? Certainly up is “The Big Short,” which suddenly is coming on strong to challenge for Best Picture. Also up are surprise contenders “Sicario” and “Straight Outta Compton,” both of which did very well with the various craft-guild nominations, and these guild members are the ones who actually vote.
Who’s down? Probably “Inside Out,” which was thought to be a potential Best Picture contender but which seems to be relegated to the usual Pixar corner of Best Animated Feature and Original Screenplay, and that’s it. Also “Spotlight,” which has been the front-runner for the last two months, had a relatively weak showing in the guild nominations — their strategy of having the entire cast go supporting, while noble, seems to have backfired as they have appeared to cancel each other out. So, as a result, this is the most wide-open Oscar race in years.
So, with one final gulp, here are my best guesses as to whose names will be read Thursday morning at 8:30am ET/5:30am PT.
BEST PICTURE (presuming there are 10 nominees)
“The Big Short”
“Bridge of Spies”
“Brooklyn”
“Carol”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Sicario”
“Spotlight”
“Straight Outta Compton”
BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”)
Matt Damon (“The Martian”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)
Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”)
Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (“Carol”)
Brie Larson (“Room”)
Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”)
Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale (“The Big Short”)
Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”)
Mark Ruffalo (“Spotlight”)
Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”)
Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”)
Rooney Mara (“Carol”)
Rachel McAdams (“Spotlight”)
Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)
Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”)
BEST DIRECTOR
Adam McKay (“The Big Short”)
George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
Ridley Scott (“The Martian”)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)
Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Adam McKay & Charles Randolph (“The Big Short”)
Phyllis Nagy (“Carol”)
Drew Goddard (“The Martian”)
Emma Donoghue (“Room”)
Aaron Sorkin (“Steve Jobs”)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Quentin Tarantino (“The Hateful Eight”)
Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve (“Inside Out”)
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”)
Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus (“Straight Outta Compton”)
Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Carol”
“The Hateful Eight”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”
“Sicario”
BEST EDITING
“Bridge of Spies”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“Spotlight”
“Steve Jobs”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Brooklyn”
“Carol”
“Cinderella”
“The Danish Girl”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
“Mr. Holmes”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Bridge of Spies”
“The Danish Girl”
“The Hateful Eight”
“Spotlight”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“So Long” (“Concussion”)
“Love Me Like You Do” (“50 Shades of Grey”)
“See You Again” (“Furious 7”)
“Til It Happens To You” (“The Hunting Ground”)
“Simple Song #3” (“Youth”)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Bridge of Spies”
“Cinderella”
“The Danish Girl”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
BEST SOUND EDITING
“The Hateful Eight”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
BEST SOUND MIXING
“Bridge of Spies”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Jurassic World”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Anomalisa”
“The Good Dinosaur”
“Inside Out”
“The Peanuts Movie”
“Shawn the Sheep Movie”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Amy”
“Cartel Land”
“Listen To Me Marlon”
“The Look of Silence”
“Winter on Fire”
BEST FOREIGN FILM
“The Brand New Testament” (Belgium)
“Labyrinth of Lies” (Germany)
“Mustang” (France)
“Son of Saul” (Hungary)
“A War” (Denmark)
Please, please if you are in any betting pool for these nominations, don’t wager any money on my picks. I have a terrible track record on predicting the nominees. But maybe, just maybe, a few of these will come through. Let’s reconvene on Thursday when we find out which folks are named as the nominees for the 88th Academy Awards ceremony set for Sunday, February 28, hosted by Chris Rock.
