FEBRUARY 10, 2016
Photo: Getty
That wasn’t even close.
New Hampshire has had a long history of thumbing its nose at the political results from Iowa. The results of the Iowa caucuses on February 1 gave Ted Cruz a surprisingly substantial victory in the GOP caucuses over a 2nd-place Donald Trump, while Hillary Clinton eked out a win over Bernie Sanders.
But on Tuesday night, New Hampshire really gave Iowa the finger when Trump came back with a decisive win over 3rd-place Cruz, while Sanders enjoyed a landslide victory over Clinton. Take that, Iowa! And those results have already managed to knock out two GOP contenders from the race.
The New Hampshire results really exposed the deep divide that exists within each party. For the Republicans, there are basically 3 lanes — the right-wing ideological lane, which is being dominated by Cruz; the establishment lane, which is being fought over by Bush, Kasich and Rubio; and there’s the Trump lane, because he’s Trump. Within the next few weeks, the winner of the establishment lane will emerge, and we are likely to have a 3-man split race that could drag on until the July convention in Cleveland.
On the Democratic side, there is a growing concern that, while the two candidates have conducted a remarkably civil campaign themselves, their supporters are beginning to use social media vitriol to slam each other and thus jeopardizing the coming together that will be necessary for a Democratic victory in November.
Here’s the breakdown:
REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump (35%) — He Who Must Be Reckoned With broke all the rules in achieving his big victory on Tuesday. In a state whose voters expect to meet their candidates face-to-face to size them up, Trump couldn’t be bothered, relying instead on huge rallies and a few begrudging diner stops. Still, he steamrollered over all the candidates in the other two lanes. Next stop for the GOP is South Carolina, and with the heavy military presence there and Trump’s outspoken support of veterans, he is well poised to make it two-in-a-row.
John Kasich (16%) — The Ohio governor was heavily invested in New Hampshire, basically living there for the better part of a year, and the optimistic tone of his campaign was well suited for GOP moderates, of which there were far more in New Hampshire than in Iowa. The important takeaway from the results was that Kasich managed to put a little bit of daylight percentage-wise between him and the other establishment candidates. One wonders, though, whether his sunny campaign will survive the buzzsaw of the dirty political tricks for which the South Carolina primary is notorious.
Ted Cruz (12%) — If Cruz had finished behind the establishment lane candidates here, that would have been trouble. So a third-place finish in a secular state with far fewer Evangelicals should cause the Cruz campaign to breathe a sigh of relief. His prospects look much brighter in South Carolina, which is conservative and filled with evangelicals all over the state.
Jeb Bush (11%) — Another campaign that should be relieved at the results. Bush had to contend with three other candidates, Kasich, Rubio and Christie, who were trying to poach the same segment of voters, and a Top 4 finish gives him a ticket to compete in South Carolina, where Bush’s support among veterans as well as his brother (who is still popular in the state) should make Bush more competitive in the February 20 primary.
Marco Rubio (11%) — What a disaster. After a strong showing in Iowa, Rubio appeared to be gaining momentum as the establishment’s candidate of choice, with a 2nd-place finish possible and the big donors poised to fill his coffers as long as he had a good New Hampshire result. Then came the debacle of a debate on Saturday night, and he never recovered. He goes to South Carolina wounded, but not fatally…yet. But if he ever starts to repeat scripted lines as he did at that debate, he’s toast.
In Memoriam:
Chris Christie (7%) — Suspended his campaign Wednesday afternoon. Christie was described rather crudely but accurately by Rupert Murdoch as a “suicide bomber” — he managed to severely wound his target (Rubio) at Saturday night’s debate, but he blew himself up in the process. Running very short on money, Christie needed at least a 4th place finish to attract donors to fund a South Carolina run, but that’s not happening now. He’s still young and may have another run in him, but for now, he’s going back to Trenton to rebuild some of the bridges (no pun intended) that he burned by his year-long ignoring of the state for his own campaign.
Carly Fiorina (4%) — Suspended her campaign Wednesday afternoon. Fiorina zoomed from semi-obscurity to contender with a sharp critique of Hillary Clinton in the first GOP kids’ table debate. But when she claimed on the big stage that she had personally seen a Planned Parenthood video showing “a fully formed fetus on the table, its heart beating, its legs kicking while someone says, ‘We have to keep it alive to harvest its brain,’” that was the ballgame. It soon became clear that no such video existed, and when Fiorina doubled down on the lie, it was back to the kids’ table and oblivion.
DEMOCRATS
Bernie Sanders (60%) — This was a considerable achievement by the Sanders campaign. Down a few months ago by at least 40+ points in New Hampshire, this 22-point victory demonstrates that the Sanders folks have developed a serious ground game — getting the voters to the polls — that is more more effective than anyone would have thought. For the Democrats, the next stop is the Nevada caucuses on February 20 where Sanders’ economic inequality argument could take off. Then there’s South Carolina, where Democratic voters are 60% African-American and are thought by many to be a firewall for the Clinton campaign. So it’s telling that Sanders’ first stop on Wednesday after leaving New Hampshire was a breakfast meeting with the Rev. Al Sharpton at the legendary Harlem restaurant, Sylvia’s.
Hillary Clinton (38%) — It became apparent several weeks ago that Clinton was going to lose the New Hampshire primary, which in 2008 resurrected her candidacy after a loss to Barack Obama in Iowa. The Clinton campaign publicly stated that it was their goal to reduce the Sanders victory to single digits. They didn’t even come close. (Yipes, 22 points!) Moreover, Clinton lost the women’s vote in all demographics except 65+ (!!!), and her problems attracting 18-29 year-olds have only gotten worse. Rumors are flying that a major campaign shakeup is imminent (Bill, in particular, is said to be pissed), but they’re going to have to do it quickly and cleanly, as Nevada is just around the corner.
February 20 is the date for both the GOP primary in South Carolina and the Democratic caucuses in Nevada. By the calendar, it’s only 10 days away, but in politics, 10 days is an eternity in a presidential campaign where anything can happen. The next Republican debate is scheduled for this Saturday from Greenville, SC, only on CBS. Be there or be square!
