FEBRUARY 24, 2016
Photo: AP
Can the Republican race be almost over already?
Judging from last night’s results of the GOP caucuses in Nevada, we may be less than one week away to having this race wrapped up. Donald Trump just crushed the competition last night, garnering 46% of the vote, winning more votes than the numbers racked up by Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz combined. What began in June as a kind of a joke campaign, then grew through the summer and autumn months as a weird phenomenon has now turned into the likelihood of a Trump nomination and by next week that nomination may become a certainty.
What happens then is Super Tuesday, also known as the SEC Primary, when 11 states, mostly in the South, vote at the same time with a treasure trove of nearly 600 delegates up for grabs. Trump is currently leading in 9 of those states, and though Cruz currently leads in the remaining 2 (Arkansas and his home state of Texas), the momentum that will likely be generated by Trump’s big win last night could make those states vulnerable as well. If Trump, who has currently earned 81 delegates compared to 17 each for Rubio and Cruz, earns the lion’s share of Super Tuesday delegates, his lead will likely prove insurmountable.
From all reports, Republican Party elders are panicking at the thought of Trump as the party’s nominee and have largely thrown their weight behind Rubio, with a good number of elected officials endorsing the FL Senator in the past few days. Those big-name endorsements, however, didn’t seem to do much to help Rubio last night.
Perhaps the oddest strategy currently in play is Rubio and Cruz failing to attack Trump but instead focusing their firepower against each other in a blood match to be the last man standing to face Trump. What each man has failed to see is that, while they’re bickering now, Trump is racing so far ahead of the field that, even if one finally emerges as the last man, Trump may have sewn the whole thing up by then.
Here’s the vote breakdown from last night:
Donald Trump (46%) — Trump is now the bull, gleefully breaking every piece of china in the shop, striding onstage with the confidence of a candidate with the wind at his back, knowing that it’s just a matter of time until his lead becomes insurmountable. How he handles these victories next week will tell you much about any interest he may (or may not) have in working with the Republican Party establishment, whose help he will need if he has any chance against the Democratic nominee in the general election.
Marco Rubio (24%) — The good news: Rubio has now beaten Cruz for the second vote in a row, and he seems to have recovered completely from his debacle in New Hampshire. The bad news: even if he is lining up Republican Party endorsements, he still hasn’t won a single primary or caucus, and these second-place finishes, while still garnering delegates, allow Trump to get farther and farther ahead. Until he actually wins, it will be hard to see Rubio as a winner.
Ted Cruz (21%) — Cruz has had a really rough week. Accusations that the Cruz campaign waged dirty tricks against Carson in Iowa and Rubio in South Carolina resulted in the firing of the campaign’s media spokesman over the weekend. That, coupled with Trump’s relentless attacks on Cruz as a liar, has undoubtedly impacted the candidate’s favorability. Cruz received some good news this afternoon, however, with the endorsement of conservative Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, a state Cruz has to win on Tuesday, or else he’s toast.
Ben Carson (5%) and John Kasich (4%) — The longer Carson stays in, the happier it makes Trump, since Cruz can’t poach those Carson voters. But if Carson stays in too long, he may be seen as a spoilsport and harm his brand. Kasich also helps Trump by holding back voters who might otherwise go to Rubio. Kasich’s goal is probably to stay in until the March 8 primary in Michigan and the March 15 contest in Ohio. But this thing may be over by then.
Next up? The Final Five meet for the only pre-Super Tuesday debate on Thursday in Houston, TX. Be there or be square!
