MARCH 9, 2016
Photo: AP
Momentum in this year’s race for the White House was turned on its head once again on Tuesday as GOP frontrunner Donald Trump regained his footing, winning three of the 4 contested states, and Bernie Sanders pulled of one of the most shocking primary upsets in decades as he fooled all the pollsters, taking the big state of Michigan.
For Sanders, the Michigan victory seemed to come out of the blue. No reliable pollster forecasted a Sanders win, with most believing Clinton’s margin of victory would be anywhere from 5 to 20 points. Even the legendary Nate Silver of the website FiveThirtyEight, who, unril last night, crunched the numbers and predicted that Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning Michigan.
This Michigan win provides a huge psychological boost to the Sanders campaign (as well as a boon to his fundraising efforts) as the primaries in other Rust Belt states, which have populations similar in makeup to Michigan, loom next. Now that the primaries are over in the South (with their large African-American voter bases that have favored Clinton), Sanders, with Michigan under his belt, may begin to see a clearer path to the nomination.
But the name of the game is delegates, and Sanders is still struggling in that regard. Despite his surprise Michigan victory, Sanders actually came out with three fewer delegates from Michigan than Clinton, thanks to what districts in the state each candidate won and by what margin. Couple that with Clinton’s overwhelming win in Mississippi on Tuesday, where she beat Sanders by a margin of 83% to his 17%. Clinton added 100 pledged total for the day, further extending her delegate lead over Sanders, who netted another 70.
But Team Clinton should be very worried about the Michigan results. She had everything going for her in the state, yet Sanders’ message seemed to penetrate more. And Ohio, with its similar voter demographic, could provide similar problems for Clinton. She cannot take her support among African-American voters for granted, but she lost the white vote to Sanders, and that blue-collar constituency will be playing a greater and greater part as the primaries progress.
As for the GOP, Trump, who seemed to have a loss of momentum in last Saturday’s contests after garnering fewer delegates than Ted Cruz, got back to his winning ways, notching wins in Michigan and Mississippi, as well as the caucuses in Hawaii. He celebrated his victories by holding probably the most bizarre news conference that I have ever seen. Instead of dealing with the issues currently raised in the campaign, Trump instead cited his business prowess, introducing an elaborate display of Trump Water, Trump Wine and Trump Steaks, displayed on a slab. It was like something you’d see on the Home Shopping Network as Trump spent most of the presser extolling how fantastic his products are. I half expected to see a 1-800 number at the bottom of the screen. Call now!
Cruz stayed competitive, taking Idaho from Trump and gaining an additional 56 delegates for the evening. The road ahead for Cruz, who got a major endorsement today from former rival Carly Fiorina, will become more challenging in the next few weeks as the primary calendar turns to such Trump-friendly, winner-take-all states as New York and California.
John Kasich did well in Michigan, just missing a second-place finish and managing to garner 17 delegates in the process. But Kasich really needed a Michigan victory to gain some momentum as he heads into next week’s must-win primary in his home state, Ohio. If Kasich loses Ohio next Tuesday, he’s probably done.
Last night’s primary results provided Marco Rubio exactly zero new delegates. Zero. With two 3rd place finishes and two in 4th place, Rubio, despite all of his GOP establishment endorsements, is sinking fast. It’s possible that, even if he wins his home-state primary in Florida, he may be unable to go much farther in this race.
Next up are two debates from Miami — tonight for the Democrats on Univision, and tomorrow for the Republicans on CNN. Be there or be square!
For those of you who like the numbers, here are the Little Tuesday results:
MICHIGAN
Republican Primary
Donald Trump 37% (25 delegates awarded)
Ted Cruz 25% (17 delegates)
John Kasich 24% (17 delegates)
Marco Rubio 9% (0 delegates)
Democratic Primary
Bernie Sanders 50% (65 delegates awarded)
Hillary Clinton 48% (68 delegates)
MISSISSIPPI
Republican Primary
Donald Trump 47% (24 delegates awarded)
Ted Cruz 36% (13 delegates)
John Kasich 9% (0 delegates)
Marco Rubio 5% (0 delegates)
Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 83% (32 delegates awarded)
Bernie Sanders 17% (5 delegates)
IDAHO
Republican Primary
Ted Cruz 45% (20 delegates awarded)
Donald Trump 28% (12 delegates)
Marco Rubio 16% (0 delegates)
John Kasich 7% (0 delegates)
HAWAII
Republican Caucus
Donald Trump 42% (10 delegates awarded)
Ted Cruz 33% (6 delegates)
Marco Rubio 13% (0 delegates)
John Kasich 11% (0 delegates)
And here’s where we currently stand in the race for delegates:
REPUBLICANS (1,237 needed to win)
Donald Trump 459
Ted Cruz 364
Marco Rubio 153
John Kasich 54
DEMOCRATS (2,383 needed to win)
Hillary Clinton (including superdelegates) 1,194
Bernie Sanders (including superdelegates) 569
