SEPTEMBER 5, 2018
It’s Oscar Week at Exact Change Today, as we look at the primary contenders in each of the four acting categories. Yesterday, we began with the hot race for Best Supporting Actress, and today we examine the equally competitive race to capture one of the five slots as Best Supporting Actor. You may not be familiar with some of these films yet, but don’t worry, you will be.
At this moment, here are the 10 men who, as we see it, stand the best chance of hearing their name on nomination morning. Click below to see the top contenders in alphabetical order.
Mahershala Ali – “Green Book”
There’s some variation of “Once a winner, always a contender” that applies to Oscar prognostication for nominations. The winner of this very category two years ago for “Moonlight,” Ali couldn’t play a character here that’s more different than his kindly drug dealer in that Best Picture winner. In “Green Book,” he plays a famed classical pianist who in 1962 is chauffeured around the Deep South on his concert tour by an Italian-American driver (Viggo Mortensen) who must follow the “Negro Motorist Green Book” to find places to stay that are hospitable to African-Americans. It’s a very Oscar-baity subject, and with Ali involved, it may be a contender.
Timothée Chalamet – “Beautiful Boy”
It was generally assumed by Oscar experts that Chamalet was the runner-up to Gary Oldman in last year’s Best Actor race for his performance in “Call Me By Your Name.” And now he’s back with the real-life story of the struggles of a young meth addict (Chamalet) who is being helped in conquering his downward spiral by his loving father (Steve Carell). The fact that Chamalet, who was the discovery of last year’s Oscar season, will go supporting here might give him a significant name-recognition advantage in what promises to become an extremely competitive race. We’ll know more when “Beautiful Boy” debuts at the Toronto Film Festival on Friday.
Adam Driver – “BlacKkKlansman”
Spike Lee’s “BlacKkKlansman” has opened to encouraging box office and extremely positive reviews, many of which singled out the supporting performance of Adam Driver. In Lee’s film, Driver plays Colorado Springs cop Flip Zimmerman, who is asked to go undercover to pose as a potential Ku Klux Klan recruit where he is forced to hide his Jewish heritage. As good as Driver is in “BlacKkKlansman,” his Oscar fortunes are probably tied to the fate of the film itself, and it’s a long time until January nominations. We’ll know more if the movie gets traction and holds its audience over the next few weekends.
Sam Elliott – “A Star Is Born”
This is a category that has often honored veteran actors, from Don Ameche to Jack Palance to James Coburn. What they each had in common was a narrative, a story about the rise and fall and rise in their careers. Sam Elliott has a similar narrative, and the Western star definitely has a career story to tell. So if the acting branch is enchanted by the film and is looking to honor “A Star Is Born” in categories beyond the two leads, Elliott, who has never previously been nominated, would be the perfect place to go.
Michael B. Jordan – “Black Panther”
If there is a performance in “Black Panther” that garnered universal critical acclaim, it was that of Michael B. Jordan as the film’s villain, Killmonger, cousin to T’Challa who wants to overthrow him as king, to run Wakanda his own way, that earned the most critical cheers. Even though we don’t approve of Killmonger’s deeds, Jordan lets us understand why the character is doing them every step of the way, so that by the end, he becomes the kind of conflicted tragic character that has Shakespearean dimensions. If Disney can mount a smart campaign for the film and for Jordan, a nomination for the young actor is a real possibility. The release of “Creed II” later in the year could also help his chances.
Daniel Kaluuya – “Widows”
Steve McQueen’s “Widows,” his follow-up to his Oscar-winning “12 Years A Slave,” is one of the great unknowns in this year’s Oscar season. Although the plot suggests that it might simply be a commercial genre film, McQueen’s artistic skill could lift it up to become an awards player. If so, one of the beneficiaries might be Daniel Kaluuya who, like Timothée Chalamet, is dropping down from his Best Actor nomination last year to supporting for his role as a persistent bill collector in the film. The goodwill that Kaluuya engendered during his campaign for “Get Out” may be rewarded with a second consecutive Oscar nomination. Plus, villain roles tend to be showy and his presence in “Black Panther” earlier this year all help his chances.
Jonathan Pryce – “The Wife”
Welsh actor Jonathan Pryce has made his share of good movies (“Brazil,” “Glengarry Glen Ross”), but it’s his history on the stage (winning Tony Awards for his performances in 1977’s “Comedians” and 1991’s “Miss Saigon”) that cemented his reputation as an actor’s actor. It’s been years since Pryce was offered a movie role that allowed him to flex his acting muscles, but he’s got one here as Joe Castleman, an acclaimed writer and insecure womanizer who learns that he has won the Nobel Prize for Literature. He travels to Stockholm with his wife Joan (Glenn Close) to take his bows, but a silently fuming Joan harbors a secret that could destroy his reputation. Pryce’s Joe is a substantial supporting role (arguably a co-lead) and the fact that Close is getting Oscar notice for her performance means that “The Wife” will be seen, and that can only enhance Pryce’s Oscar chances.
Sam Rockwell – “Backseat”
The defending champion in this category, the “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” winner who mixed goofy with dark for his Deputy Dixon, may have another winning role as George W. Bush in “Backseat,” Adam McKay’s biopic of Dick Cheney’s rise to power. While it’s rare to have the same actor win back-to-back Oscars in this category — Jason Robards was the last to manage to do it in the 1970s — the respect that the acting branch has for Rockwell’s career may not make a second win out of the question, particularly if McKay (a winner for Best Adapted Screenplay for his last film “The Big Short”) writes W. as a multi-dimensional character that Rockwell can sink his teeth into.
J.K. Simmons – “The Front Runner”
J.K. Simmons is another former winner who’s back in contention. With an Oscar for 2014’s “Whiplash,” Simmons may have the goods to return to the winner’s circle for his role in “The Front Runner,” Jason Reitman’s chronicle of the 1988 Gary Hart Presidential campaign. Simmons portrays the real-life Bill Dixon, Hart’s campaign manager, and longtime friend, and if the prospect of seeing the gruffness of J.K. Simmons in a political setting doesn’t make you salivate, you must have a really dry mouth. The film has to perform critically, of course, but if it does, watch out for Simmons.
Sebastian Stan – “Destroyer”
Sebastian Stan’s widely-admired performance as sleazebucket Jeff Gillooly in “I, Tonya” was widely seen by Oscar voters last year, so he may still be on voters’ radar, and Karyn Kusama’s crime thriller, “Destroyer,” which premieres at the Toronto Film Festival, might just be the vehicle to get him his first nomination. Like his potential Oscar rival Adam Driver, Stan plays an undercover cop, and while details of his role have been kept sketchy (probably deliberately to maintain mystery), that kind of a role offers an actor, in essence, a chance to play two characters, which tests any actor’s range.
This is, of course, not a definitive list. We’ve all been through enough Oscar races to know that, at this early stage, the fortunes of some unknowns will rise and those of some early favorites will fall. So let’s call this a snapshot of where the Best Supporting Actor category is at this moment, and we’ll follow every shift in the contest here at Exact Change Today.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at the likely candidates for a biggie — Best Actress.
Buckle up. It’s going to be quite a ride.
This article originally appeared in Next Best Picture. https://www.nextbestpicture.com/
