NOVEMBER 11, 2015
After that hot-mess of a GOP debate sponsored by CNBC two weeks ago, a number of the party’s Presidential candidates got together to demand more neutral moderators and substantive questions at the next debate, which was held last night in Milwaukee. Well, they got what they wanted at yesterday’s debate, and some of them should have been warned “Be careful what you wish for.”
The candidates were pretty much in lock step on most issues, from tax policy to social concerns, but the evening unexpectedly revealed a major rift among the candidates on two issues: immigration and foreign policy.
On the immigration front, Donald Trump maintained his argument for building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico, citing how well a wall has worked in Israel. Ted Cruz, who is drafting behind Trump in hopes of snagging his supporters if Trump begins to sag, backed him up, criticizing those who say that those favoring the enforcement of immigration laws are anti-immigrant, a statement that Cruz deems “offensive.”
John Kasich, on the other side, called Trump’s plan to deport those workers “silly” and not an “adult” approach to the problem. Jeb Bush added that Trump’s plan was “impractical” and imagines that, listening to Trump’s ideas, “They’re doing high-fives in the Clinton campaign right now.”
Interestingly, Marco Rubio, of Cuban ancestry and author of a comprehensive immigration reform bill that he has since decided to disavow, opted to stay out of the fray.
The issue of American foreign policy was more contentious, as Trump stated that if Russia wants to take out ISIS after the downing of a Russian plane last week, he’s fine with that because America can’t be the policeman of the world. Rubio countered that America should be the strongest military force in the world, and if takes increasing the military budget, so be it. Rand Paul then confronted Rubio, questioning his conservative credentials if he favors adding $1 trillion in military spending to the budget.
So there was some drama last night, but it was more policy-driven than personal, making the call of winners and losers a little more difficult. But that won’t stop Exact Change Today. Here we go…
WINNERS
MARCO RUBIO
Rubio continued his Sherman’s March through the debates last night, handling every question with ease and deflecting most of the barbs thrown his way, except for one by Rand Paul. Where Rubio might have gone too far, at least in terms of a general election, is his steadfast assertion that U.S. troops have to be sent into every place where there is a threat to democracy. That may play well in the GOP primaries, but in comparison to Hillary Clinton’s hawkishness, it is more extreme, allowing Clinton to take the centrist position, which is where you want to be if you want to win the general.
TED CRUZ
Probably the best trained debater of the group, Cruz is right where he wants to be in this field. His declaration that the anti-immigrant charge against him is “offensive” played well in the hall and probably with Republican voters. He’s playing the waiting game (which is smart because this campaign is indeed a marathon), but the waiting for a Trump/Carson implosion is taking a little bit longer than he probably anticipated. He only helped himself last night.
RAND PAUL
Finally we see a glimpse of the candidate that Libertarians expected when he was a front-runner early in the process. Paul was the only one who laid a glove on Rubio with his questioning of Rubio’s conservative bona fides regarding his proposal of vastly expanding the military budget. Contrasted with prior debates where Paul seemed desperate to get into the fray, last night he appeared assured and in command of the facts. Will his performance make a difference? He’s at 3% in the polls so it will be a little difficult to make a big move, but at least the Rand Paul that we have expected to see actually showed up.
UNCLEAR
JEB BUSH
This was probably Jeb’s best performance of the four debates so far. He effectively countered Trump and Rubio on the foreign policy question, answering Trump’s assertion that “we can’t be the world’s policeman” and Rubio’s “We must be the strongest power in the world” with his feeling that America should be a leader, which he argued was something very different altogether. His dismissal of Trump’s deportation scheme was directed more toward a general audience than those in a GOP primary, and his shutting down of Kasich’s interruptions showed a confidence that he hasn’t shown in any prior debate. It wasn’t quite as much as Bush needed to rise in the polls, but at least last night, he stopped the bleeding.
JOHN KASICH
Kasich seemed to have had a game plan to be aggressive and insert himself into every conversation, so much so that, in the early part of the debate, it just seemed obnoxious and led to an effective swipe against him by Bush. But his dismissal of Trump’s deportation plan as “silly” was a strong moment. Kasich seems to be the moderate alternative if Bush somehow collapses (which seems less likely after last night), but his performance (especially after being booed when he suggested that there was a place for government intervention to save big banks from collapsing) indicates that he might face a wall of conservative resistance if his numbers improve.
DONALD TRUMP
Trump didn’t have a great debate, but, compared with the first 3 debates, at least this time he was involved in it. He was the center of the evening’s big topics, immigration and foreign policy, and he argued his case forcefully, if not always to his benefit. When confronted by Kasich on the practicality of deporting 11 million undocumented workers, Trump cited beloved GOP President Dwight Eisenhower, who deported 1.5 million Mexicans in 1952. (At least Trump never called the program by its ugly nickname back then — “Operation Wetback.”) Still, if his supporters didn’t bail on him after his lackluster performances in the other debates, they’re unlikely to desert him now.
LOSERS
BEN CARSON
The big question going into last night’s debate was who among Carson’s rivals would be the first to attack his controversial accounts of his life story. Wisely, no one did. It took a moderator well into the debate to raise the question, and Carson handled it deftly, turning it around to say that Hillary Clinton was the real liar. When it came to questions about foreign and economic policy, however, Carson’s glassy eyes returned, and he delivered a word salad worthy of Sarah Palin. All eyes were on Carson last night — it was his night to shine, but he didn’t. A potentially damaging missed opportunity.
CARLY FIORINA
Fiorina delivered a dazzling performance in the first Kids’ Table debate in August, the impact of which propelled her poll numbers to qualify her for the main stage. In debates #2 & 3, however, she seemed to be steely but passive, only shining when she called out Trump for disparaging her looks. Last night, she got some sympathy when Donald Trump interrupted a Fiorina/Paul back-and-forth to ask “Why is she interrupting everybody?” However, last night she seemed to lean too much on her favorite crutch: the fact that she has met personally with most of the world’s major leaders. Onstage she dismissed her rivals by asserting that she met Vladimir Putin “not in a green room for a show, but in a private meeting.” Well fine, except for the fact that in September she told Jimmy Fallon that she met Putin…in a green room.
In addition, there was (still) a Kids’ Table debate. A personal gripe: these networks have determined who gets on the stage and who does not by a survey of national polls. Why not determine participation by averaging the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (the first three voting states) who have met the candidates, many personally, and have a better idea of where the race is now? Asking a voter in states where primaries are not imminent whom they support becomes a game of name recognition only. National polls mean nothing now. Iowa and New Hampshire are the immediate name of the game, and the networks and the RNC should rethink this whole idea. Done. On to:
THE KIDS’ TABLE DEBATE
This was a blowout. Chris Christie, who had no business being demoted after his recent surge in New Hampshire and incredibly moving video talking to voters about the heroin addiction problem in that state (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdYMx7sycW4), was untouchable during the hour. Mike Huckabee (who was also demoted) and Rick Santorum did their social issues thing. Bobby Jindal, desperate for attention like a yippy dog, tried to goad Christie into a fight, but the New Jersey governor flicked him off like dandruff on his shoulder. Hopefully, this will be the last kids’ table, and we can get about to some serious discussion among all the major candidates.
The next GOP candidate tussle will be on December 15 in Reno, NV. See you there!
