DECEMBER 16, 2015
Photo: AP
Well, I didn’t expect that last night.
The 13 remaining Republican contenders for the GOP Presidential nomination met on Tuesday in two debates focusing on the single theme of national security. While I can’t say that the approaches of many of the candidates could be called “substantive,” the back-and-forth among the Top 9 candidates at the Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas unexpectedly revealed an even split on the subject of national defense that did not exist 8 years ago.
Among the nine contenders on last night’s main stage, who won?
- WINNERS: none
- LOSERS: Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Ben Carson
Though Fiorina and Kasich avoided any gaffes, neither had the kind of outstanding moment that each would have needed to get them out of the basement among the Top 9. They lost by not winning.
Carson’s situation is more dire. Carson began to rise in the polls when voters began to look around for a “nicer Trump,” and the retired neurosurgeon seemed to fit the bill, even though it was clear that he hadn’t a clue about foreign policy issues. But after the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernadino, primary voters seemed to sober up, and a scared electorate began to search for someone with national security chops. In the latest NBC News poll, Carson’s support has dropped eighteen points in the last month, devastating for a candidate in a 13-person field. At a moment when he really needed to step up, Carson sleepwalked away another opportunity.
- MIXED: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rand Paul
These six scored some points but also stepped in it now and then. However, their interactions showed that there are some fissures in the GOP front, and none more so than on these issues:
Neocons vs. Reaganites — This was by far the most revealing split of the night. In 2007, Ron Paul was nearly booed off the GOP debate stage when he suggested that the Bush/Cheney neocon position of invading countries to topple leaders deemed potentially dangerous to U.S. interests was not the best way to go. How things have changed in 8 years. Last night 4 of the 9 candidates (Trump, Cruz, Carson and Ron’s son Rand) took some form of a non-interventionist position against the panel’s 5 (Rubio, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Bush) “bomb-’em-back-to-the-Stone-Age” adherents. This is a split with which the party will have to deal long after this election is over.
Cruz vs. Rubio — This was probably the most consequential one-on-one of the night, as many believe that these will be the last two candidates left standing at the convention. Each one stumbled over each other in trying to take the furthest-right position on almost anything. Rubio, a fervent neocon, mocked Cruz’s desire to “carpet-bomb” ISIS, when Cruz has never voted for any bill to fund weaponry for the military. For his part, Cruz took on Rubio’s willingness to work with Democrats on fashioning a bill that would provide undocumented workers a chance to become legal, calling Rubio’s position “amnesty.” This isn’t the last that we’ve seen of this show.
Jeb! vs. Trump — By far the most entertaining confrontation of the evening, Bush was the only candidate to take on Trump directly, citing the billionaire’s lack of knowledge on military matters, noting Trump’s assertion that he gets military insights from the generals he sees on “the shows.” Bush then openly wondered whether the shows Trump watches are on Saturday mornings or Sunday mornings. Trump simply dismissed Bush’s attacks, falling back once again on his poll numbers, with a “Oh yeah, you’re a tough guy Jeb. Real tough … I’m at 42, Jeb, and you’re at 3.” Bush didn’t always connect, but at least he did try to rattle Trump.
Christie vs. Paul — On the rise in New Hampshire, Christie succeeded in coming off as the most bellicose saber-rattler on the stage — any enemy that rears its ugly head will be destroyed! — and that might give him a second look by the war hawks in his party. But when he stepped over the line when he promised that, if a Russian plane was ever found flying in a no-fly zone, he’d shoot it out of the air, a provocation that would likely precipitate a war with a nuclear power. Paul drolly noted to voters, “Well, I think if you’re in favor of World War III, you have your candidate.”
The Bro Show — Just what is going on between Trump and Cruz? Last week, Cruz, who had yet to criticize Trump, questioned his judgment at an off-the-record fundraiser. Trump countered by saying that Cruz acted like a “maniac” in the Senate, to which the Texas Senator tweeted a clip from the song “Maniac” from “Flashdance” in response. But last night, not only were there no fireworks between the two, they seemed like long-lost frat brothers, joshing with each other and offering lots of pats on the back. Yes, it makes sense for them not to go after each other just yet because each wants to pick up the other’s voters. But all of this bro-play? Guys, just get a room.
SCORECARD:
Trump — Yes, there were a few loopy answers, but he did nothing to jeopardize his frontrunner status.
Cruz — A good debate for him, solidifying his solid second-place ranking.
Rubio — Smooth as usual, but he took in a lot of incoming last night, and playing defense is not his strength.
Bush — Probably his best debate so far (a low bar), but it may be a case of too little, too late.
Christie — Made the most of being back on the main stage. Will his hawkishness play in New Hampshire?
Paul — Stayed on stage by the skin of his teeth and managed to create a few memorable moments.
Carson — The doctor needed to stop the bleeding last night, and he applied nowhere near enough pressure.
Fiorina & Kasich — Get ready for the kiddie table.
Speaking of which, there was another early undercard debate yesterday, where Mike Huckabee (demoted from the adults table), Rick Santorum and George Pataki showed up to get their clocks cleaned by Lindsey Graham, for whom foreign policy is his meat and potatoes. Graham is an utter wonk when it comes to international affairs, and he knows his facts. How he interprets those facts, however, is another matter entirely.
Last night marked the final GOP debate for 2015. We’ll get the gang back together again on Thursday, Jan. 14, 2016 in Charleston, SC. Be there or be square!
