FEBRUARY 28, 2016
Photo: AP
Well, that was a thumping.
Hillary Clinton simply crushed rival Sen. Bernie Sanders in Saturday’s South Carolina Democratic primary, beating the Vermont senator by a massive 48-point margin. It was by far Clinton’s most convincing win to date and sets her up for continued success in this week’s Super Tuesday series of 11 state primaries, many of which will also take place in the South.
Clinton’s victory was not unexpected, but, to many observers, the sheer size of it was. Sanders made a concerted effort to introduce himself to the voters of the Palmetto State, but his team must have seen the polls indicating an upcoming defeat, because he largely stopped campaigning in the state mid-week and instead focused on the crucial Super Tuesday states.
Key to Clinton’s win was support by African-American voters, who constitute 62% of all Democratic voters, and Clinton showed particular strength among black women. When the campaign began months ago, there was much concern in the Clinton camp that South Carolina would still blame her for husband Bill’s derogatory (some have called them racist) remarks about then-Sen. Obama in the state’s 2008 primary. But apparently all is forgiven for the Clintons, and the big African-American margins bode well for Clinton for Tuesday’s primaries in many states with a similarly high proportion of black voters.
Despite a concerted effort by Sanders to meet with African-American leaders and campaign in churches, Sanders’ message didn’t resonate with the state’s voters. Certainly Sanders’ message of economic inequality could have spoken to the state’s poorer voters, but he made the mistake of tying them to the Citizens United decision and to super PACs, issues that are irrelevant to most voters, rather than to the bread-and-butter daily issues that spoke more clearly to voters’ concerns. And he doesn’t have much time to correct that.
After the South Carolina results, here is the current delegate count (with 2,383 needed to be nominated):
Hillary Clinton – 112
Bernie Sanders – 66
While that looks close and it’s still early, remember that this number does not count the super-delegates (made up of top party and elected officials), over 500 of whom have already pledged their support to Clinton.
So what’s next?
Hillary Clinton (74% of the SC vote) — If the Super Tuesday vote goes as expected, expect Clinton to vastly increase her delegate lead. In five delegate-rich voting states in the South, the percentage of African-American voters remains high, which is good news for Team Clinton. If her delegate haul on Tuesday is high enough, it will begin to make her lead over Sanders mathematically insurmountable. Then look for her to begin to shift her campaign focus from Sanders to Trump, as she transitions from a primary to a general-election campaign.
Bernie Sanders (26%) — There are number of states in which Sanders remains competitive — his biggest efforts for the Tuesday vote are in Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont — but they all award delegates proportionately to their state’s vote, so that even if Sanders ekes out a win in Colorado, Clinton will likely get almost as many delegates as Sanders, making it difficult, if not impossible for him to cut into her delegate lead. A clear path to the nomination is narrowing for Sanders, and there’s not much time left on the clock.
865 Democratic delegates are up for grabs on Tuesday, making it the most consequential primary day on the calendar. Exact Change Today will be there, covering the most minute of minutia. It’s going to be a big day, so be there or be square!
