JULY 27, 2016
If you can believe it, next year’s Oscar race is more than half over. There’s an old maxim among Oscar prognosticators that voters have a short memory, and it’s one of those few maxims that are actually true. It’s been 25 years since a Best Picture winner (“The Silence of the Lambs”) was released as early as February, so it’s thought that films released in the first half of the year have a distinct disadvantage by not being front-of-mind for Oscar voters. So if you have a film that is released during that time, you might get a bit of advantage at the box-office, but you may be jeopardizing your chances at holding an Oscar next February.
But this year there have been a few spectacularly original films that might (and I emphasize the might) have the stamina to go all the way to the Dolby Theater on the big day.
I want to propose five contenders, who, given some luck and a few December Oscar-bait films collapsing, could make it all the way to nomination day.
BEST PICTURE
“THE BIG SICK”
Released June 23, 2017
This might seem to be a crazy option for a Best Picture nomination, given the fact that romantic comedies have not proven to be sure things for Best Picture as they are generally seen as too light and disposable for such a serious award. But “Annie Hall” managed to take The Big Prize over “Star Wars” in 1977, so it can be done. But you need a little gravitas, particularly when you’re competing against films that have gravitas by the bucketful. As it happens, “The Big Sick” happens to have the requisite amount of that, given that it involves both a cultural clash between families regarding marriage, as well as a life-and-death situation. Based on the real-life marriage of co-writers Emily V. Gordon and “Silicon Valley” co-star Kumail Nanjiani, “The Big Sick” may have a chance to slip through to a win if its competition is ponderous Oscar bait. (It’s also helpful that “The Big Sick” is doing well at the box-office — everyone like to be associated with a hit.) Oscar tip: Keep an eye out for Emmy winner Ray Romano (“Everybody Loves Raymond”) and Oscar winner Holly Hunter (“The Piano”) in the supporting categories. They’re real contenders. (Look for my full review of “The Big Sick” in next week’s Exact Change Today.)
BEST ACTOR
SAM ELLIOTT (“The Hero”)
Released June 9, 2017
Though my original review of “The Hero” emphasized that its star Sam Elliott might be an Oscar long-shot, as the summer weeks have passed, his chances are looking a little rosier, as Hollywood often likes to honor a much-respected veteran actor when he is given a breakout role — think Ben Johnson in “The Last Picture Show” or Richard Farnsworth in “The Straight Story” — and Elliott certainly delivers the goods here. As a nearly washed-up Western actor who is now relying on his iconic voice for income-generating work in voice-overs, Elliott delivers a laid-back performance that may be comfortably familiar, but here it’s really about something — being given a cancer diagnosis, he tries to make amends to those whom he has wronged while pursuing an unexpected love affair with a much-younger comedian (Laura Prepon). Elliott gives it his all here — we’ll just have to wait whether it’s good enough to withstand the Oscar-bait onslaught still to come.
BEST ACTRESS
GAL GADOT (“Wonder Woman”)
Released June 2, 2017
Don’t laugh. It could happen. As potential Oscar nominees fall away, Gadot’s remarkable work here may become a little more appreciated. In a town where someone else’s success can generate jealousy and backbiting, I haven’t met a single person who is anything less than delighted for director Patty Jenkins and her star, Gadot, who has managed to create an endearing character while still being utterly convincing as a warrior who can take down anyone who gets in the way of truth, justice and the American way. (Oops, that’s Superman.) I can see the Golden Globes eating this up, and combined with the highly favorable reviews and the fact that it’s the biggest box-office hit of the summer (it just passed “Guardians 2” for that title last weekend), there may be a place at the Oscar table for Gal Gadot and “Wonder Woman.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
PATRICK STEWART (“Logan”)
Released March 3, 2017
Sir Patrick Stewart has been lauded throughout his distinguished career on stage, television and film, with nominations and awards for Emmys, Tonys, Grammys, SAGs…the list goes on. But Stewart has never been nominated for an Academy Award. Granted, the kind of parts that Stewart has chosen to play — Charles Xavier/ Professor X in the “X-Men” series, small little-noticed indies and voice work for animated features (he voices a piece of poo in this weekend’s “The Emoji Movie”) are hardly Oscar bait. But ironically, it might be his most iconic movie role — Professor X – that could bring him his first Oscar nod. I defy you to watch Stewart’s Professor X facing down what could be the last months of his life and not shed a tear. Being the trained actor that he is, it is Stewart’s choice of restraint rather than overemoting that really hits you in the gut and may hit Oscar voters the same way.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Jordan Peele (“Get Out”)
Released February 24, 2017
If you’re considering original screenplays, there are few as original so far this year as Jordan Peele’s script to “Get Out,” the horror/comedy/satire/social commentary phenomenon that is the best reviewed (99% favorable on Rotten Tomatoes) and most profitable (over $175 million gross for a film that cost $4.5 million) film of 2017. Its success aside, Peele’s script takes an outrageous idea and pushes it as far as it will believably go, mixing humor, scares and overall smarts with a gripping and, at times, terrifying story about race and white-liberal guilt A Best Picture nomination might be a bit of a long-shot — the Academy has rarely warmed to the idea of a horror movie receiving its most prestigious honor — but it would take a historic movie year to find a Best Picture field that contains films that received the kind of critical raves as “Get Out,” so who knows for sure?
