SEPTEMBER 14, 2017
Welcome to the 3rd Annual “Movies to Put on Your Oscar Radar” column.
Now that many of the big film festivals (Sundance, Cannes, Telluride and Venice) are over, with Toronto winding up this weekend, most of the major films that will playing in the Oscar sandbox this season have made themselves clear. There are exceptions — some Oscar-worthy films don’t go the festival route, preferring to screen just before their commercial openings, while others are simply not done yet.
In addition, this is not a list of the best films of the year. Sometimes a perfectly dreadful film is an Oscar player, while some brilliant films are not considered for awards at all — “Baby Driver,” for example, which will easily make my 10 Best list this year, is just not the kind of film that Oscars usually consider.
Just consider this a snapshot of the lay of the Oscar race at this moment. Some of these films might not receive the same kind of acclaim with critics as they did with festival-goers and will drop off the list. And they will be replaced by new rising titles. So if you’re in a quandry about what to see, hopefully this will be a helpful guide.
Bring on the contenders!
BATTLE OF THE SEXES — Opened September 22
Many of us oldsters were around in 1973 when tennis pro and male chauvinist Bobby Riggs (Steve Carell, in a role he seemed born to play) challenged top female pro Billie Jean King (Emma Stone) to a man vs. woman “Battle of the Sexes” exhibition match. The hype for the match was enormous (largely thanks to showman Riggs, the Trump of his era), but what none of us knew was that King, at the very same time, was grappling with her sexuality, coming to the realization that she was gay. In early reviews, the work of directors Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Farris (“Little Miss Sunshine”) and Carell himself have been praised, but the lion’s share of the critical kudos have gone to Stone, fueling speculation that she may win back-to-back Best Actress Oscars based on this performance.
THE BIG SICK — Opened June 23
It’s been 40 years since the last romantic comedy won the Best Picture Oscar (“Annie Hall”), but “The Big Sick” is the first one in years to have a legitimate shot. Based on the real-life courtship between the film’s screenwriters, comic actor Kumail Nanjiani (“Silicon Valley”) and his now-wife Emily V. Gordon, the film follows the budding romance between Kumail and Emily (played here by Zoe Kazan) despite the pressure he is under to marry a Pakistani woman. When the couple breaks up and Emily suddenly becomes deathly ill, in Kumail’s vigil at the hospital, he makes an unlikely bond with Emily’s parents (Ray Romano and Holly Hunter, both serious contenders for an Oscar nomination). If you haven’t seen it yet, go!
BLADE RUNNER 2049 — Opening October 6
It might seem odd now, since “Blade Runner” is now considered a modern classic, but at the time of its release in 1982, the film only received mixed reviews and was considered a flop at the box office — even with its many re-releases, the film has to date grossed less than $34 million. So the idea of a sequel seemed preposterous back then. Now, 35 years later, we have “Blade Runner 2049,” with last year’s Oscar nominees Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”) and director Denis Villeneuve (“Arrival”) joining Harrison Ford in this futuristic update of the “Blade Runner” world. A Best Picture nomination might be a bit of a stretch, but, from the looks of the trailer, “Blade Runner 2049” will likely be a contender in many, many technical categories.
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME — Opening November 24
Until recently, a gay romantic film as a Best Picture nominee might have seemed unlikely, but our reigning Best Picture is “Moonlight,” so rules are made to be broken. Set in 1980s Italy, it’s a love story between an academic (Armie Hammer) staying at his parents’ villa and a young man named Elio (Timothée Chalamet) with whom he shares a bond over their mutual Jewish heritage and their love of the Italian landscape. “Call Me By Your Name” had critics swooning at this year’s Sundance Film Festival in January, and the film will likely need support from various critics’ groups to gain some traction in the Oscar race. But it happened to “Moonlight,” and it could happen here.
DARKEST HOUR — Opening November 22
Based on reaction in screenings at Telluride and Toronto, Gary Oldman’s portrayal of Winston Churchill has already jumped out to the front of the pack in the Best Actor race. Yes, this has been a year with dueling Churchills — there’s John Lithgow’s Emmy-nominated turn in TV’s “The Crown” and an earlier “Churchill” film this spring with Brian Cox, but critics’ reviews from both festivals indicate that Oldman brings something special to the table in “Darkest Hour.” Interestingly, the events in “Darkest Hour” appear to dovetail with many of the incidents in another Oscar contender, Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk.” And Oscar voters have been real suckers when accomplished actors such as Oldman portray real-life figures. Without seeing it, I wouldn’t necessarily say that “Darkest Hour” is Oscar bait, but the portrayal of a strong leader taking over to right the government may certainly appeal to Academy voters.
DUNKIRK — Opened July 21
Christopher Nolan’s acclaimed time-shifting depiction of the battle of Dunkirk proved to be one of the most popular films of the summer, and a widely-seen film, if it’s good, gives it a leg up in the Oscar race. With so many contenders as yet unreleased, “Dunkirk” would have to be considered the favorite for Best Picture at this moment, but it’s a long way to nominations in January. Still, the film’s technical achievements are likely to clean up in those categories, and a wonderful performance by Oscar winner Mark Rylance as a civilian who is willing to sail his fishing boat to Dunkirk just to help should certainly merit attention from the acting branch.
THE FLORIDA PROJECT — Opening October 6
Director Sean Baker’s most famous film was 2015’s “Tangerine,” a story about transgender sex workers on Santa Monica Blvd. in Los Angeles. The behind-the-scenes hook to “Tangerine” was that the entire film was shot on three iPhone5 smartphones. That brought Baker a lot of cred in the critical community, so when his latest film, “The Florida Project” (named after the working title of Orlando’s Walt Disney World), premiered at Cannes, critics sat up and took notice. Another acclaimed film that will need critical help in order to make a dent in the Oscar race, “The Florida Project” focuses on a family living in an extended-stay motel in Kissimmee, Florida. Critics raved about the film, with special attention given to two-time Oscar nominee Willem Dafoe’s turn as the motel’s owner.
GET OUT — Opened February 24
A February release is not the most opportune time for a potential Oscar nominee to be released, but who in his right mind would have thought that a horror movie could be an Oscar nominee? Jordan Peele’s masterful film captured the imagination of the American public (to the tune of a $175 million gross) in a post-Obama era. The film’s premise is so out there but so imaginative that audiences just lapped it up. One of the most acclaimed films of the year (still at 99% favorable at Rotten Tomatoes), “Get Out” might be a long shot for a Best Picture nomination, but it should be a no-brainer for a nomination for a Best Original Screenplay nod, where it will likely do battle with the script for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (which we’ll get to later). Get out the popcorn kids, because this is going to be one epic contest.
LADY BIRD — Opening November 10
Actress Greta Gerwig’s first solo directorial gig involves shy high-school senior Christine “Lady Bird” McPherson (Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan) who is on a tour of potential colleges with her overbearing mother Marion (Tony-winner Laurie Metcalf). Nothing happens to Lady Bird that is anything out of the ordinary for a young woman her age, but Gerwig has written fully-developed characters who come in and out of Lady Bird’s life and cast it impeccably with such seasoned stage actors as Tracy Letts, Lois Smith and Stephen McKinley Henderson, as well as Oscar nominee Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”) and Timothée Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”). A definite contender.
LAST FLAG FLYING — Opening November 3
This is one of the great unknowns, since so far no one has screened the film which will play the New York Film Festival on September 28. But its pedigree is impeccable. Considered a sequel to Hal Ashby’s profane “The Last Detail” (1973), the film’s director is Richard Linklater, who caused a sensation in 2014 with his film “Boyhood,” which was nominated for 6 Oscars and snagged one for Best Supporting Actress Patricia Arquette. And he’s got a stellar cast here with Emmy & Tony winner Bryan Cranston, as well as Oscar nominees Steve Carell and Laurence Fishburne. On paper, this looks like perfect Oscar material, but we’ll know more after it screens on the 28th.
PHANTOM THREAD — Opening December 25
Except for a log line that indicates that “Phantom Thread” is set in the couture world of London in the 1950s, little is known about Oscar nominee Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film. The most important fact to know is that the film’s star, three time Oscar-winner Daniel Day-Lewis, has said that, at age 60, “Phantom Thread” will be his very last film, after four decades of acting in the industry. No one yet knows whether “Phantom Thread” will be an Oscar contender, but a final nomination for Day-Lewis would be a fitting farewell to a most distinguished career.
THE POST — Opening December 22
Reportedly, “The Post” is still being filmed in anticipation of a December premiere, but how can you deny the Oscar credentials of three-time Oscar winning director Steven Spielberg, as well as a cast headed by two-time Oscar winner Tom Hanks as Washington Post editor Ben Bradlee and three-time Oscar winner Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Kay Graham? And it’s about the leaking of the Pentagon Papers, for goodness sake. It seems tailor-made for Oscar, but it remains to be seen whether it’s too tailor-made for Oscar. We’ll see when the film begins to screen in December.
THE SHAPE OF WATER — Opening December 8
Guillermo del Toro’s take on the “Beauty and the Beast” tale is set in 1962 with a mute cleaning woman (Sally Hawkins) who works at a government facility who comes upon a half-man/half fish (Doug Jones) who was taken from the Amazon and is being examined by the Government. Neither one can speak, and they fall in love. Del Toro plays the romance absolutely straight, and critics have been falling all over themselves in praise of it, with the Venice Film Festival awarding it the Golden Lion, their equivalent of the Best Picture. This one is going to be a player.
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI — Opening November 10
You don’t mess with Mildred Hayes (Frances McDormand). Seven months after her daughter was raped and set on fire, Ebbing police have made no arrests in the case, so Mildred takes things in her own hands and rents three billboards outside of town designed to shame the police into action. The premise sounds deathly grim, but if have seen the film’s redband trailer on You Tube (and if you haven’t, do it now!), you’ll realize that this promises to be the most darkly funny film in years. Irish playwright/director Martin McDonagh is a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination for Original Screenplay, and McDormand is well on her way to her fifth Oscar nomination as well.
WONDER WOMAN — Opened June 2
Don’t laugh. It could happen. Here’s why. To get a Best Picture nomination, you need passionate voters because that nomination is determined by the number of voters who put a particular film as their #1 choice. And people who love “Wonder Woman” (and there are many), really love “Wonder Woman.” And it would be a much deserved honor. Patty Jenkins’ film took the gloom-and-doom approach of the DC Comics’ superhero films and turned it on its head. making a sunny and fun superwoman saga. Gal Gadot, who is so good in the film, may be seeing her Best Actress chances diminishing due to the number of worthy actresses coming on strong at year’s end (Best Actress is going to be way more competitive than Best Actor this year), but the film is sure to pick up quite a few technical nominations. So “Wonder Woman” will have a place at the Oscars.
I have no doubt that there is likely to be a supplemental list coming — an “Oscar Radar” Part 2 later in the year — but look out for these 15, particularly when the new films begin to open around the country this fall. We will be on the case, keeping track of their progress.
…){kind=link}