FEBRUARY 28, 2018
This is the column I have most dreaded to write all year and the one I’ll most regret re-reading on Monday morning.
Exact Change Today has ridden the Oscar train with you all awards season with its ups & downs and sudden switches and unexpected snubs. I have fancied myself the Grand Poobah of all-seeing and all-knowing Oscar tidbits. But this weekend, I fear that I will be exposed as the charlatan that I am. But knowing that many of you will have to have your office Oscar pools ready by end-of-business-day on Friday, here are a few thoughts that make perfect sense to me on Wednesday but will likely look perfectly foolish by Monday.
Here are Exact Change Today‘s predictions with my pick to win in CAPS. Let’s go!
BEST PICTURE:
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI”
This year, Best Picture remains one of the evening’s tightest races. “The Shape of Water” won the Producers Guild award, an important step toward winning the Oscar, but it failed to garner a Screen Actors Guild nomination for Best Ensemble. (Last year, “La La Land” also failed to get a SAG nomination and lost Best Picture.) SAG is crucial because the actors branch is the largest group of Oscar voters. “Three Billboards” won the SAG Award this year, as well as the Golden Globe and the British Film Academy Award (BAFTA) as Best Picture. But the film has been seen as the most divisive — some love, some hate — and that’s a complication with Oscar’s preferential Best Picture ballot, which tends to reward consensus nominees. Still all of those Best Picture wins, particularly the SAG/BAFTA combination, for “Three Billboards” are hard to ignore.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”)
Jordan Peele (“Get Out”)
Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”)
Paul Thomas Anderson (“Phantom Thread”)
GUILLERMO DEL TORO (“THE SHAPE OF WATER”)
No “Three Billboards” nomination here, which is a definite minus for that film. Still, the critics groups and guilds appear to agree that as far as imaginative directing goes, no one comes close to Guillermo del Toro for his remarkable work creating “The Shape of Water.”
BEST ACTOR:
Timothée Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”)
Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”)
GARY OLDMAN (“DARKEST HOUR”)
Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”)
One of the few locks of the evening. Bet the rent money on the much-overdue Oldman.
BEST ACTRESS:
Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”)
FRANCES McDORMAND (“THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI”)
Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”)
Saorise Ronan (“Lady Bird”)
Meryl Streep (“The Post”)
This category started off to be very close among Hawkins, Ronan and McDormand, but after her Golden Globe win, McDormand has won every award in sight. Count on her winning her second Oscar, and buckle your seat belt for her speech.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)
Woody Harrelson (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) Richard Jenkins (“The Shape of Water”)
Christopher Plummer (“All the Money in the World”)
SAM ROCKWELL (“THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI”)
Critics groups went for the veteran Dafoe, but once the later guilds came in, it was clear that journeyman actor Sam Rockwell was their choice. Dafoe still has a prayer, but it’s pretty much Rockwell’s to lose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”)
ALLISON JANNEY (“I, TONYA”)
Lesley Manville (“Phantom Thread”)
Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)
Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”)
As with Supporting Actor, critics groups went one way, backing Tony-winning actress Metcalf, but the industry guilds instead turned to Emmy monster Janney, who has won every award for her performance for the past six weeks. The supporting categories are two where respected theater veterans can sometimes pull off an upset (Mark Rylance over Sylvester Stallone just a few years ago), but the smart money is still on Janney.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
“THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI”
This will likely be the most competitive category at this year’s Oscars. Four of the top contenders for Best Picture — “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards” — will be going head-to-head here, and right now I see this is the only real chance for “Get Out” or “Lady Bird” to win something. “The Shape of Water” is likely seen as a more directorial achievement rather than a scripted one, so that leaves “Three Billboards,” which has won the Globe and BAFTA in this category. Still, this one is a nail-biter.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
“CALL ME BY YOUR NAME”
“The Disaster Artist”
“Logan”
“Molly’s Game”
“Mudbound”
It’s hard to believe that 89 year-old James Ivory has never won an Oscar despite creating such classics as “A Room With a View” and “Howards End,” but that may end with his first Academy Award for his script for “Call Me By Your Name.” The other scripts are very good, but the fact that Ivory’s script is for the only Best Picture nominee in the bunch makes “Call Me” the safest bet.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
“BLADE RUNNER 2049″
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Mudbound”
“The Shape of Water”
Roger Deakins is the Susan Lucci of cinematographers. “Blade Runner 2049” marks Deakins’ 14th Oscar nomination in this category, but he has never won — incredible, as he has been nominated for shooting such extraordinary films as “The Shawshank Redemption,” “Fargo” and “No Country For Old Men.” I’m betting that the 14th time’s the charm, even though a Rachel Morrison win for “Mudbound” would make her the first woman ever to win this award.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Darkest Hour”
“PHANTOM THREAD”
“The Shape of Water”
“Victoria and Abdul”
The costumes in “Beauty and the Beast” were impressively accomplished, but “Phantom Thread” was all about the designs, for goodness sake, and displayed them spectacularly.
BEST EDITING:
“Baby Driver”
“DUNKIRK”
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
I can understand why the other three films were nominated, but for me, this is a race between “Baby Driver” and “Dunkirk.” The acclaimed editing is what made “Baby Driver” work so well and earned the film this year’s BAFTA Award, but I suspect that the “Dunkirk” train will come out on top here.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR:
“DARKEST HOUR”
“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonder”
The less-than-rotund Gary Oldman was somehow transformed into Winston Churchill, thanks to the team led by Kazuhiro Tsuji, who came out of retirement just to put jowls on the Best Actor contender. A lock.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“THE SHAPE OF WATER”
Usually this award goes to big palatial designs, and we certainly have that here with “Beauty and the Beast” and “Blade Runner 2049.” But who can forget those carefully detailed apartments or that underground bunker of a workplace in “The Shape of Water”? I can’t, and it’s my pick for the win.
BEST SCORE:
“Dunkirk”
“Phantom Thread”
“THE SHAPE OF WATER”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Composer Alexandre Desplat’s score for “The Shape of Water” is so moody yet lyrical in its feeling that it’s little wonder it has swept the awards board so far, including BAFTA and the Golden Globe. I see no reason why Desplat’s score won’t be honored here.
BEST SONG:
“Mighty River” (“Mudbound”)
“Mystery of Love” (“Call Me By Your Name”)
“REMEMBER ME” (“COCO”)
“Stand Up For Something” (“Marshall”)
“This Is Me” (“The Greatest Showman”)
I suspect that this will be a two-song race between the lovely and haunting “Remember Me” from “Coco” and the foot-stomping anthem “This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman.” Keala Settle, who performs “This Is Me” in the film, has been singing it everywhere on the talk-show circuit over the past few weeks, and the film’s soundtrack hit #1 on the Billboard charts for several weeks in January. But “Remember Me” is is a multi-layered beauty of a song that helps to advance “Coco’s” plot, and I think Oscar voters will remember it.
BEST SOUND EDITING:
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“DUNKIRK”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
All right, class, let’s go over this one more time. Sound editing is the actual creation of all of the non-musical sound effects in a film — wind, for example, flying birds, snapping twigs, etc. plus dialogue. Sound mixing is taking all those elements together (including music) and creating a symphony of sound. The general rule for predicting sound editing is go for the loudest one. Therefore: “Dunkirk.”
BEST SOUND MIXING:
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“DUNKIRK”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
Sound mixing is blending all of the elements that the sound editors create. Because of that, the category often favors musicals (“La La Land” won this last year). The closest thing we have to a musical here is “Baby Driver,” but I suspect that the “Dunkirk” technical wave will continue here as well.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
“BLADE RUNNER 2049”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Kong: Skull Island”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”
To my mind, the most deserving nominee in this category is the remarkable work in “War for the Planet of the Apes,” a film that most Oscar soothsayers are predicting to win. I would join them if there were any technical nominations for “War” in other categories. But the visual effects category is the film’s sole nod, so I question if it has enough of a base of support to take the win. So I’m predicting the other big dog in the technical categories — “Blade Runner 2049.”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
“Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“COCO”
“Ferdinand”
“Loving Vincent”
If any film was going to challenge Pixar’s “Coco,” it would have shown up by now. It’s pretty close to a lock for “Coco.”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Faces Places”
“ICARUS”
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Strong Island”
“Faces Places,” co-directed by Agnes Varda (who, at 89, just slightly older than James Ivory, would be the oldest Oscar winner ever), swept the critics awards in this category, but with Oscar voting coinciding with the Olympics, “Icarus,” which chronicles the Russian doping scandals, may feel more relevant. I’m going with “Icarus.”
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:
“A FANTASTIC WOMAN” (CHILE)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul” (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)
In Sebastian Lelio’s acclaimed Chilean drama, Marina, a transgender woman (played by transgender actress Daniela Vega) copes with her lover’s sudden death and the feelings that her world has been suddenly taken away from her. Any of the other four nominees would be worthwhile winners, but “A Fantastic Woman” offers a veracity about trans life that elevates it above the others.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
“DEAR BASKETBALL”
“Garden Party”
“Lou”
“Negative Space”
“Revolting Rhymes”
Now we get to where Oscar pools are won or lost. Some years, I see the shorts in advance. It never seems to help. That being said, “Dear Basketball” is written and narrated by L.A. Laker legend Kobe Bryant, and it stands to reason that, with so many Oscar voters living in Southern California, a few of them just might be Laker fans.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
“Edith+Eddie”
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
“HEROIN(E)”
“Knife Skills”
“Traffic Stop”
With the exception of the imaginatively drawn “Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” a look at artist Mindy Alper, the other four nominees deal with social issues — interracial romance among the elderly (“Edith+Eddie”), convicts’ transition from prison life (“Knife Skills”), white cops vs. black citizens (“Traffic Stop”), and the opioid crisis in Appalachia (“Heroin(e)”). A wide open field, but I think the topical subject matter of “Heroin(e)” will give it the win.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
“DeKALB ELEMENTARY”
“The Eleven O’Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“The Silent Child”
“Watu/Wote: All of Us”
The recent Parkland school shooting, which is still among the lead stories on most cable news, may give “DeKalb Elementary,” which deals with the subject head-on, an extra bit of gravitas.
“The 90th Annual Academy Awards” with host Jimmy Kimmel will air live on Sunday, March 4 on ABC at 8pm ET/5pm PT. Be there or be square!
